A couple of weeks ago, Len Kasper, one half of the TV broadcast booth of the Chicago Cubs, was on 670 The Score in Chicago discussing the upcoming season with afternoon drive hosts Dan Bernstein and Terry Boers. When he was asked what some of the more important questions the Cubs had to answer in Spring Training, he answered (paraphrase) "They need to find a #5 hitter."
It's a discussion as old as baseball, the importance of the batting order. There ARE reasons why batting order is important, the primary one being that for a given season, each slot lower in the batting order produces about 15-20 fewer plate appearances per year. Here's the data from the 2012 regular season:
I’m not sure people understand
just how INFREQUENTLY a player actually bats his batting order position. This
chart shows how often a player actually batted his batting order slot from
2010-2012:
The “More” column reflects
those innings in which more than 9 hitters go to the plate. Positions 1, 2 and
3 require serious thought since they’re guaranteed to bat their slot at the
beginning of the game, but after that it’s a crapshoot. Buried somewhere is the
data that managers use to justify batting their pitcher 8th, but I’m
at a loss to understand it or believe that the difference has any measurable
impact. To illustrate the point I made at the beginning, whomever the Cubs slot as the #5 hitter will actually bat 5th in an inning around 16-17% of the time, or about 1 in 6 at-bats. Whether this is important or not is for others to debate, I suggest that it doesn't deserve the ink and airtime it gets.
Also in here is the reason why
there is much more randomness in baseball than in football or basketball. On August
12th, 2012 in the game between the White Sox and Blue Jays, Adam
Dunn came to the plate in the top of the 8th with the Sox leading
3-2 with 1 out and a runner (Kevin Youkilis) on 2nd (Dunn walked, by
the way). There was nothing Robin Ventura had done to insure that Dunn would be
the hitter at this crucial part of the game—he hadn’t moved hitters around in
prior innings in order to make this come about, but was the lucky beneficiary
of the vagaries of the game. Contrast with basketball and football:
1. In
basketball, if the Bulls are down 2 with 3 seconds left (and assuming a healthy
Derrick Rose), there’s little doubt as to who the intended shooter is—it may
not work out that way for any number of reasons, but it’s almost certain (and
I’d love to find out if I’m correct) that Tom Thibodeau has five specific
players on the floor (and most likely NOT all five of the starters) in five
specified positions, down to who in inbounding the ball. The Bulls may be
successful, they may not be, but it will be ON THEIR OWN TERMS.
2. In
football, down 4 and 4th-and-goal with 15 seconds left in the Super
Bowl, we have two pretty good ideas as to whom the Bears will target (again,
assuming healthy)—Michael Bush with a run or Brandon Marshall with a pass.
Granted, football allows for more possibilities, but again, the key players on
the field are not in doubt.
Now, assume it’s the bottom of
the 9th in Game 7 of the World Series and the Cubs are down to their
last out with the bases loaded and down by one run (I used the word “assume”
for a reason). As they relive the 1945 Series against the Tigers, who is facing
Jose Valverde in this particular instance? Beats me, and it’s out of the hands
of Dale Sveum, Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer or Tom Ricketts as well. Heroes in
baseball are made as much by luck as by intentional design, and any time luck
becomes an important facet of the outcome, randomness is introduced.
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