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  1. Dear Scott, I just discovered your blog very recently and enjoyed reading many of your articles.

    I have a couple of quick questions and would really appreciate hearing your opinion. I'm especially interested in what you believe to be the baseball statistic that has the most PREDICTIVE value among commonly found statistics. It was somewhat unclear to me if you believe it's runs scored, or hits + walks.

    I live in Tucson,Arizona now, but I lived in Las Vegas for over 20 years and I've never found any stat that has any real predictive value. I have found pitching stats to be especially useless. Results of games seem to come in largely at random except in cases of significant talent differences.

    As a side note, I find it interesting that you're from Davenport, Iowa - hometown of longtime sports handicapping researcher Jim Barnes. Friends with him by chance?

    Barnes spent more than 20 years trying to find statistics, systems, and methods that would yield profits in the world of sports betting. And I believe I have read nearly everything he ever wrote. I think he's a brilliant guy, but I'm of the opinion that none of his theories or methods ever really worked. There seems to be no statistics that have any significant predictive value. In fact, I think that statistics might be most useful in reverse - the clock always returns to 12.

    I'd really be interested in your opinion as to the usefulness or worthlessness of statistics to predict either the outcome of sporting events or the direction of the stock market and precious metals.

    You've got a great blog and I very much enjoy reading your articles.

    Best Wishes,