Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Dunn

I don't claim to be the most original person--I can research questions but I'm not so good at actually coming up with them, which is why I'm highly appreciative of those who can. I saw this last night on Twitter from Comcast SportsNetChicago's Christopher Kamka (@ckamka):
Adam Dunn is the epitome of the three-outcome hitter. For a brief period these players seemed to be rather prevalent--this somewhat lengthy list shows all players with at least 30 HR, 100 BB and 100 KO in a season (keep on scrolling, I write after this):
Rk Player Year HR BB SO Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Adam Dunn 2012 41 105 222 CHW 151 649 539 87 110 19 0 96 2 1 .204 .333 .468 .800
2 Jose Bautista 2011 43 132 111 TOR 149 655 513 105 155 24 2 103 9 5 .302 .447 .608 1.056
3 Prince Fielder 2011 38 107 106 MIL 162 692 569 95 170 36 1 120 1 1 .299 .415 .566 .981
4 Jose Bautista 2010 54 100 116 TOR 161 683 569 109 148 35 3 124 9 2 .260 .378 .617 .995
5 Prince Fielder 2010 32 114 138 MIL 161 714 578 94 151 25 0 83 1 0 .261 .401 .471 .871
6 Prince Fielder 2009 46 110 138 MIL 162 719 591 103 177 35 3 141 2 3 .299 .412 .602 1.014
7 Adrian Gonzalez 2009 40 119 109 SDP 160 681 552 90 153 27 2 99 1 1 .277 .407 .551 .958
8 Adam Dunn 2009 38 116 177 WSN 159 668 546 81 146 29 0 105 0 1 .267 .398 .529 .928
9 Adam Dunn 2008 40 122 164 TOT 158 651 517 79 122 23 0 100 2 1 .236 .386 .513 .898
10 Pat Burrell 2008 33 102 136 PHI 157 645 536 74 134 33 3 86 0 0 .250 .367 .507 .875
11 Jack Cust 2008 33 111 197 OAK 148 598 481 77 111 19 0 77 0 0 .231 .375 .476 .851
12 Adam Dunn 2007 40 101 165 CIN 152 632 522 101 138 27 2 106 9 2 .264 .386 .554 .940
13 Ryan Howard 2007 47 107 199 PHI 144 648 529 94 142 26 0 136 1 0 .268 .392 .584 .976
14 Pat Burrell 2007 30 114 120 PHI 155 598 472 77 121 26 0 97 0 0 .256 .400 .502 .902
15 David Ortiz 2007 35 111 103 BOS 149 667 549 116 182 52 1 117 3 1 .332 .445 .621 1.066
16 Carlos Pena 2007 46 103 142 TBD 148 612 490 99 138 29 1 121 1 0 .282 .411 .627 1.037
17 Travis Hafner 2006 42 100 111 CLE 129 564 454 100 140 31 1 117 0 0 .308 .439 .659 1.097
18 David Ortiz 2006 54 119 117 BOS 151 686 558 115 160 29 2 137 1 0 .287 .413 .636 1.049
19 Manny Ramirez 2006 35 100 102 BOS 130 558 449 79 144 27 1 102 0 1 .321 .439 .619 1.058
20 Jason Giambi 2006 37 110 106 NYY 139 579 446 92 113 25 0 113 2 0 .253 .413 .558 .971
21 Jim Thome 2006 42 107 147 CHW 143 610 490 108 141 26 0 109 0 0 .288 .416 .598 1.014
22 Jason Bay 2006 35 102 156 PIT 159 689 570 101 163 29 3 109 11 2 .286 .396 .532 .928
23 Adam Dunn 2006 40 112 194 CIN 160 683 561 99 131 24 0 92 7 0 .234 .365 .490 .855
24 Ryan Howard 2006 58 108 181 PHI 159 704 581 104 182 25 1 149 0 0 .313 .425 .659 1.084
25 Adam Dunn 2005 40 114 168 CIN 160 671 543 107 134 35 2 101 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927
26 David Ortiz 2005 47 102 124 BOS 159 713 601 119 180 40 1 148 1 0 .300 .397 .604 1.001
27 Jason Giambi 2005 32 108 109 NYY 139 545 417 74 113 14 0 87 0 0 .271 .440 .535 .975
28 Brad Wilkerson 2004 32 106 152 MON 160 688 572 112 146 39 2 67 13 6 .255 .374 .498 .872
29 Adam Dunn 2004 46 108 195 CIN 161 681 568 105 151 34 0 102 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .956
30 Jim Edmonds 2004 42 101 150 STL 153 612 498 102 150 38 3 111 8 3 .301 .418 .643 1.061
31 Bobby Abreu 2004 30 127 116 PHI 159 713 574 118 173 47 1 105 40 5 .301 .428 .544 .971
32 Lance Berkman 2004 30 127 101 HOU 160 687 544 104 172 40 3 106 9 7 .316 .450 .566 1.016
33 J.D. Drew 2004 31 118 116 ATL 145 645 518 118 158 28 8 93 12 3 .305 .436 .569 1.006
34 Jim Thome 2004 42 104 144 PHI 143 618 508 97 139 28 1 105 0 2 .274 .396 .581 .977
35 Carlos Delgado 2003 42 109 137 TOR 161 705 570 117 172 38 1 145 0 0 .302 .426 .593 1.019
36 Jason Giambi 2003 41 129 140 NYY 156 690 535 97 134 25 0 107 2 1 .250 .412 .527 .939
37 Jim Thome 2003 47 111 182 PHI 159 698 578 111 154 30 3 131 0 3 .266 .385 .573 .958
38 Frank Thomas 2003 42 100 115 CHW 153 662 546 87 146 35 0 105 0 0 .267 .390 .562 .952
39 Jason Giambi 2002 41 109 112 NYY 155 689 560 120 176 34 1 122 2 2 .314 .435 .598 1.034
40 Jim Thome 2002 52 122 139 CLE 147 613 480 101 146 19 2 118 1 2 .304 .445 .677 1.122
41 Lance Berkman 2002 42 107 118 HOU 158 692 578 106 169 35 2 128 8 4 .292 .405 .578 .982
42 Sammy Sosa 2002 49 103 144 CHC 150 666 556 122 160 19 2 108 2 0 .288 .399 .594 .993
43 Jeff Bagwell 2002 31 101 130 HOU 158 691 571 94 166 33 2 98 7 3 .291 .401 .518 .919
44 Carlos Delgado 2002 33 102 126 TOR 143 628 505 103 140 34 2 108 1 0 .277 .406 .549 .955
45 Bobby Abreu 2001 31 106 137 PHI 162 704 588 118 170 48 4 110 36 14 .289 .393 .543 .936
46 Sammy Sosa 2001 64 116 153 CHC 160 711 577 146 189 34 5 160 0 2 .328 .437 .737 1.174
47 Jeff Bagwell 2001 39 106 135 HOU 161 717 600 126 173 43 4 130 11 3 .288 .397 .568 .966
48 Carlos Delgado 2001 39 111 136 TOR 162 704 574 102 160 31 1 102 3 0 .279 .408 .540 .948
49 Jim Thome 2001 49 111 185 CLE 156 644 526 101 153 26 1 124 0 1 .291 .416 .624 1.040
50 Troy Glaus 2001 41 107 158 ANA 161 708 588 100 147 38 2 108 10 3 .250 .367 .531 .898
51 Carlos Delgado 2000 41 123 104 TOR 162 711 569 115 196 57 1 137 0 1 .344 .470 .664 1.134
52 Jim Thome 2000 37 118 171 CLE 158 684 557 106 150 33 1 106 1 0 .269 .398 .531 .929
53 Alex Rodriguez 2000 41 100 121 SEA 148 672 554 134 175 34 2 132 15 4 .316 .420 .606 1.026
54 Troy Glaus 2000 47 112 163 ANA 159 678 563 120 160 37 1 102 14 11 .284 .404 .604 1.008
55 Jim Edmonds 2000 42 103 167 STL 152 643 525 129 155 25 0 108 10 3 .295 .411 .583 .994
56 Tim Salmon 2000 34 104 139 ANA 158 680 568 108 165 36 2 97 0 2 .290 .404 .540 .945
57 Jeff Bagwell 2000 47 107 116 HOU 159 719 590 152 183 37 1 132 9 6 .310 .424 .615 1.039
58 Jim Thome 1999 33 127 171 CLE 146 629 494 101 137 27 2 108 0 0 .277 .426 .540 .967
59 Jeff Bagwell 1999 42 149 127 HOU 162 729 562 143 171 35 0 126 30 11 .304 .454 .591 1.045
60 Jason Giambi 1999 33 105 106 OAK 158 695 575 115 181 36 1 123 1 1 .315 .422 .553 .975
61 John Jaha 1999 35 101 129 OAK 142 570 457 93 126 23 0 111 2 0 .276 .414 .556 .970
62 Mark McGwire 1999 65 133 141 STL 153 661 521 118 145 21 1 147 0 0 .278 .424 .697 1.120
63 Mark McGwire 1998 70 162 155 STL 155 681 509 130 152 21 0 147 1 0 .299 .470 .752 1.222
64 Jeff Bagwell 1997 43 127 122 HOU 162 717 566 109 162 40 2 135 31 10 .286 .425 .592 1.017
65 Mark McGwire 1997 58 101 159 TOT 156 657 540 86 148 27 0 123 3 0 .274 .393 .646 1.039
66 Jim Thome 1997 40 120 146 CLE 147 627 496 104 142 25 0 102 1 1 .286 .423 .579 1.001
67 Jay Buhner 1997 40 119 175 SEA 157 665 540 104 131 18 2 109 0 0 .243 .383 .506 .889
68 Jim Thome 1996 38 123 141 CLE 151 636 505 122 157 28 5 116 2 2 .311 .450 .612 1.062
69 Jeff Bagwell 1996 31 135 114 HOU 162 719 568 111 179 48 2 120 21 7 .315 .451 .570 1.021
70 Mark McGwire 1996 52 116 112 OAK 130 548 423 104 132 21 0 113 0 0 .312 .467 .730 1.198
71 Mickey Tettleton 1995 32 107 110 TEX 134 547 429 76 102 19 1 78 0 0 .238 .396 .510 .906
72 Mickey Tettleton 1993 32 109 139 DET 152 637 522 79 128 25 4 110 3 7 .245 .372 .492 .864
73 Mickey Tettleton 1992 32 122 137 DET 157 654 525 82 125 25 0 83 0 6 .238 .379 .469 .848
74 Mickey Tettleton 1991 31 101 131 DET 154 608 501 85 132 17 2 89 3 3 .263 .387 .491 .878
75 Fred McGriff 1991 31 105 135 SDP 153 642 528 84 147 19 1 106 4 1 .278 .396 .494 .890
76 Frank Thomas 1991 32 138 112 CHW 158 701 559 104 178 31 2 109 1 2 .318 .453 .553 1.006
77 Mark McGwire 1990 39 110 116 OAK 156 650 523 87 123 16 0 108 2 1 .235 .370 .489 .859
78 Fred McGriff 1989 36 119 132 TOR 161 680 551 98 148 27 3 92 7 4 .269 .399 .525 .924
79 Dale Murphy 1987 44 115 136 ATL 159 693 566 115 167 27 1 105 16 6 .295 .417 .580 .997
80 Jack Clark 1987 35 136 139 STL 131 559 419 93 120 23 1 106 1 2 .286 .459 .597 1.055
81 Mike Schmidt 1983 40 128 148 PHI 154 669 534 104 136 16 4 109 7 8 .255 .399 .524 .923
82 Mike Schmidt 1982 35 107 131 PHI 148 631 514 108 144 26 3 87 14 7 .280 .403 .547 .949
83 Jason Thompson 1982 31 101 107 PIT 156 662 550 87 156 32 0 101 1 0 .284 .391 .511 .902
84 Dwight Evans 1982 32 112 125 BOS 162 727 609 122 178 37 7 98 3 2 .292 .402 .534 .936
85 Mike Schmidt 1979 45 120 115 PHI 160 675 541 109 137 25 4 114 9 5 .253 .386 .564 .950
86 Ken Singleton 1979 35 109 118 BAL 159 688 570 93 168 29 1 111 3 1 .295 .405 .533 .938
87 Greg Luzinski 1978 35 100 135 PHI 155 657 540 85 143 32 2 101 8 7 .265 .388 .526 .914
88 Mike Schmidt 1977 38 104 122 PHI 154 667 544 114 149 27 11 101 15 8 .274 .393 .574 .967
89 Mike Schmidt 1976 38 100 149 PHI 160 705 584 112 153 31 4 107 14 9 .262 .376 .524 .900
90 Mike Schmidt 1975 38 101 180 PHI 158 674 562 93 140 34 3 95 29 12 .249 .367 .523 .890
91 Mike Schmidt 1974 36 106 138 PHI 162 686 568 108 160 28 7 116 23 12 .282 .395 .546 .941
92 Jim Wynn 1974 32 108 104 LAD 150 656 535 104 145 17 4 108 18 15 .271 .387 .497 .884
93 Darrell Evans 1973 41 124 104 ATL 161 733 595 114 167 25 8 104 6 3 .281 .403 .556 .959
94 Frank Howard 1970 44 132 125 WSA 161 706 566 90 160 15 1 126 1 2 .283 .416 .546 .962
95 Jim Wynn 1969 33 148 142 HOU 149 653 495 113 133 17 1 87 23 7 .269 .436 .507 .943
96 Reggie Jackson 1969 47 114 142 OAK 152 678 549 123 151 36 3 118 13 5 .275 .410 .608 1.018
97 Harmon Killebrew 1967 44 131 111 MIN 163 689 547 105 147 24 1 113 1 0 .269 .408 .558 .965
98 Harmon Killebrew 1962 48 106 142 MIN 155 666 552 85 134 21 1 126 1 2 .243 .366 .545 .912
99 Harmon Killebrew 1961 46 107 109 MIN 150 656 541 94 156 20 7 122 1 2 .288 .405 .606 1.012
100 Mickey Mantle 1961 54 126 112 NYY 153 646 514 131 163 16 6 128 12 1 .317 .448 .687 1.135
101 Eddie Mathews 1960 39 111 113 MLN 153 671 548 108 152 19 7 124 7 3 .277 .397 .551 .948
102 Mickey Mantle 1960 40 111 125 NYY 153 643 527 119 145 17 6 94 14 3 .275 .399 .558 .957
103 Mickey Mantle 1958 42 129 120 NYY 150 654 519 127 158 21 1 97 18 3 .304 .443 .592 1.035
104 Charlie Keller 1946 30 113 101 NYY 150 655 538 98 148 29 10 101 1 4 .275 .405 .533 .938
105 Dolph Camilli 1941 34 104 115 BRO 149 641 529 92 151 29 6 120 3 .285 .407 .556 .962
106 Hank Greenberg 1937 40 102 101 DET 154 701 594 137 200 49 14 183 8 3 .337 .436 .668 1.105
107 Jimmie Foxx 1936 41 105 119 BOS 155 693 585 130 198 32 8 143 13 4 .338 .440 .631 1.071
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

I put the entire list in for a reason--it might seem large but it's really not, only 107 seasons out of over 40,000 player-seasons (I'm leaving pitchers out). It's also very obvious when this trend began as almost 75% of these seasons occurred after 1990. Attitudes toward the strikeout have changed over time--I use this chart as my Twitter pic:

The incidence of strikeouts began to increase dramatically around 1950. Smarter people than me can explain why--there were no new stadiums or expansion that stimulated that trend, factors that DID definitely play a role in the increased strikeouts that began around 1990.









This chart shows the players with the most career Dunns--data is through Sunday, September 15th since Baseball-Reference is being unusually slow in updating the data from Monday's games:

If three-outcome hitters like Dunn, Jack Cust or Mark Reynolds were ever truly ascendant (and that's debatable), it's definitely on the decline now. A look at this list shows players who were very good overall hitters, not just swing-for-the-fencers and also very good all-around players, with some notable exceptions.







 






I'll finish this brief post with a very interesting chart--it shows the prevalence of Dunns over time:

A PhD in statistics isn't necessary to see the obvious increase in the number of these games. It IS a different game today--the new ballparks of the 1990s are far more hitter-friendly, hitters go to the plate dressed for combat and any number of rules have taken the inside pitch away from pitchers. But that was then--baseball entered a new era of pitcher supremacy beginning around 2007, and whether it's short-term or long is yet to be determined. The three-outcome hitter with defensive shortcomings is an affordable luxury in times of greater offensive output (or as a DH) but an absolute liability when pitching is dominant and each out becomes that much more valuable. The Dunn will never go away, but it probably won't  reach the heights seen around 2000.

3 comments :

  1. Without checking, I would guess the 1914 spike is due to the presence of the Federal League in 1914-15, an outlaw league made up mostly of players who should have been in the minors. The lower quality of play led to more walks by inferior pitchers, and more strikeouts thanks for inferior hitters.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You're correct, and that particular chart was an older one I hadn't corrected since I typically show it from around 1920. I updated the chart and took it back all the way to the beginning of organized baseball.

    Good catch.

    ReplyDelete
  3. So, why, why, why is Dunn drawing $15,000,000.00 per year ??????? It is because of that bubble-head, kenny williams. kenny thinks it is important to have a big palooka of a power hitter in a pop-gun park. What a jerk

    ReplyDelete