The Starlin Castro Experience

For a man only 23, Starlin Castro already has had quite the career--here are his numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	Awards
2010	20	CHC	125	506	463	53	139	31	5	3	41	10	8	29	71	.300	.347	.408	.755	100	189	14	6	4	4	RoY-5
2011	21	CHC	158	715	674	91	207	36	9	10	66	22	9	35	96	.307	.341	.432	.773	111	291	20	2	0	4	AS,MVP-23
2012	22	CHC	162	691	646	78	183	29	12	14	78	25	13	36	100	.283	.323	.430	.753	101	278	15	4	0	5	AS
2013	23	CHC	84	372	355	39	83	19	1	4	26	7	2	14	68	.234	.269	.327	.596	62	116	8	3	0	0
4 Yrs			529	2284	2138	261	612	115	27	31	211	64	32	114	335	.286	.325	.409	.734	97	874	57	15	4	13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/7/2013.

To put this in perspective, here are the most plate appearances in baseball history up to age 23:

Rk	Player	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Robin Yount	3495	1974	1979	18-23	845	3224	378	871	144	28	34	303	183	359	6	57	25	56	78	42	.270	.308	.364	.672
2	Buddy Lewis	3451	1935	1940	18-23	746	3089	517	943	149	54	44	377	303	193	11	47		17	59	39	.305	.369	.431	.801
3	Mel Ott	3317	1926	1932	17-23	831	2787	582	895	159	30	153	608	462	210	16	48			37		.321	.421	.564	.985
4	Al Kaline	3182	1953	1958	18-23	768	2857	435	880	137	32	98	450	272	247	12	17	24	73	41	27	.308	.368	.481	.849
5	Ken Griffey	3113	1989	1993	19-23	734	2747	424	832	170	15	132	453	318	404	16	5	27	55	77	38	.303	.375	.520	.895
6	Ty Cobb	3076	1905	1910	18-23	735	2773	471	959	153	62	28	474	199	251	24	80			258		.346	.395	.476	.871
7	Edgar Renteria	3038	1996	2000	19-23	697	2712	423	767	125	11	39	253	242	413	13	44	27	77	147	60	.283	.341	.380	.722
8	George Davis	3034	1890	1894	19-23	673	2728	545	814	133	79	34	456	273	144	24	9			179		.298	.367	.442	.810
9	Freddie Lindstrom	2990	1924	1929	18-23	718	2735	457	864	135	45	49	369	162	140	9	85			54	10	.316	.356	.452	.808
10	Cesar Cedeno	2915	1970	1974	19-23	689	2660	415	782	164	25	90	377	201	403	21	10	23	56	205	66	.294	.346	.476	.822
11	Vada Pinson	2857	1958	1962	19-23	644	2622	466	807	156	36	80	340	197	343	12	9	16	42	104	37	.308	.357	.486	.843
12	Alex Rodriguez	2843	1994	1999	18-23	642	2572	493	791	160	11	148	463	210	495	24	16	21	53	118	32	.308	.363	.551	.914
13	Sherry Magee	2841	1904	1908	19-23	687	2541	382	749	133	65	20	364	212	229	30	58			200		.295	.356	.422	.778
14	Mickey Mantle	2839	1951	1955	19-23	658	2411	510	719	114	38	121	445	412	479	3	8	7	17	33	15	.298	.400	.528	.928
15	Ed Kranepool	2769	1962	1968	17-23	775	2530	230	629	101	14	51	243	186	328	10	20	23	56	6	15	.249	.300	.360	.660
16	Dick Hoblitzell	2724	1908	1912	19-23	635	2422	306	702	101	51	21	321	188	169	16	98			102		.290	.345	.400	.745
17	Roberto Alomar	2678	1988	1991	20-23	609	2391	334	685	119	23	31	226	205	317	10	54	18	46	143	41	.286	.343	.394	.737
18	Jimmy Sheckard	2641	1897	1902	18-23	610	2321	446	696	107	60	26	333	246	215	48	26			180		.300	.379	.431	.810
19	Rusty Staub	2624	1963	1967	19-23	672	2315	243	620	119	11	51	298	250	254	14	20	25	61	6	6	.268	.339	.395	.734
20	Andruw Jones	2619	1996	2000	19-23	666	2335	379	635	129	21	116	361	238	468	26	6	14	46	95	33	.272	.344	.494	.838
21	Ted Williams	2613	1939	1942	20-23	586	2104	541	749	154	33	127	515	495	196	12	4		45	11	11	.356	.481	.642	1.123
22	Frank Robinson	2593	1956	1959	20-23	596	2277	415	680	112	21	134	366	239	360	47	13	18	56	46	15	.299	.374	.543	.917
23	Elvis Andrus	2591	2009	2012	20-23	601	2284	341	628	90	23	14	197	217	343	21	62	7	42	123	43	.275	.342	.353	.695
24	Bill Mazeroski	2580	1956	1960	19-23	667	2379	266	633	95	25	48	259	139	248	6	38	18	50	9	7	.266	.306	.388	.694
25	Johnny Bench	2576	1967	1971	19-23	635	2349	334	636	120	10	114	387	188	386	6	4	29	57	14	15	.271	.323	.476	.799
26	Jimmie Foxx	2568	1925	1931	17-23	656	2165	461	710	126	48	116	498	344	281	5	53			26	27	.328	.421	.591	1.012
27	Adrian Beltre	2553	1998	2002	19-23	652	2305	302	615	114	16	76	309	196	400	20	12	20	47	53	22	.267	.327	.429	.756
28	Stuffy McInnis	2545	1909	1914	18-23	633	2274	326	726	89	39	12	379	147	119	19	105			94	35	.319	.366	.409	.774
29	Orlando Cepeda	2543	1958	1961	20-23	602	2362	366	731	137	15	122	439	135	366	25	0	20	60	65	34	.309	.351	.535	.886
30	Cass Michaels	2540	1943	1949	17-23	658	2211	239	586	74	25	17	254	277	189	15	38		64	40	24	.265	.351	.344	.695
31	Bobby Doerr	2540	1937	1941	19-23	610	2276	328	661	124	24	57	365	215	192	2	48		39	19	32	.290	.352	.441	.793
32	Hank Aaron	2509	1954	1957	20-23	579	2294	387	718	125	35	110	399	171	212	8	18	18	67	8	8	.313	.360	.542	.902
33	Eddie Mathews	2490	1952	1955	20-23	581	2082	394	585	98	22	153	397	380	357	6	10	13	29	20	14	.281	.391	.570	.961
34	Arky Vaughan	2479	1932	1935	20-23	567	2127	379	716	119	50	44	351	294	105	20	39		17	27		.337	.422	.502	.924
35	Ruben Sierra	2464	1986	1989	20-23	589	2274	325	620	115	30	98	374	148	352	6	1	35	48	49	25	.273	.314	.479	.793
36	Eddie Yost	2442	1944	1950	17-23	554	2030	302	523	95	23	22	168	365	219	15	32		48	18	18	.258	.375	.360	.734
37	Bob Bailey	2407	1962	1966	19-23	596	2148	277	552	90	13	47	197	225	344	8	17	9	53	36	35	.257	.328	.377	.705
38	Ron Santo	2403	1960	1963	20-23	573	2159	251	575	105	18	74	309	211	307	6	6	21	68	12	11	.266	.330	.434	.765
39	Justin Upton	2402	2007	2011	19-23	581	2109	331	584	123	24	91	296	243	573	30	2	18	44	62	26	.277	.357	.487	.845
40	Miguel Cabrera	2392	2003	2006	20-23	563	2106	358	654	145	8	104	404	243	465	20	4	19	70	15	10	.311	.384	.535	.919
41	Travis Jackson	2373	1922	1927	18-23	600	2196	309	662	106	29	46	321	119	197	4	54			27	13	.301	.339	.439	.777
42	Butch Wynegar	2356	1976	1979	20-23	577	2024	244	518	85	6	31	250	268	202	12	36	16	45	5	5	.256	.344	.350	.694
43	Claudell Washington	2332	1974	1978	19-23	582	2178	264	609	101	25	33	250	113	395	13	8	20	49	109	57	.280	.316	.394	.711
44	Sam Crawford	2327	1899	1903	19-23	540	2136	364	679	79	85	31	350	139	176	9	43			67		.318	.362	.478	.840
45	Carl Crawford	2298	2002	2005	20-23	522	2159	308	623	88	49	33	220	97	308	10	16	16	18	169	38	.289	.320	.421	.740
46	Aurelio Rodriguez	2286	1967	1971	19-23	577	2128	213	520	93	18	43	195	118	325	14	9	14	53	25	17	.244	.287	.366	.652
47	Starlin Castro	2284	2010	2013	20-23	529	2138	261	612	115	27	31	211	114	335	15	4	13	57	64	32	.286	.325	.409	.734
48	Buddy Bell	2284	1972	1975	20-23	557	2073	252	549	79	13	40	200	169	177	13	19	10	43	19	29	.265	.323	.373	.696
49	Rickey Henderson	2269	1979	1982	20-23	504	1901	368	553	77	18	26	165	331	255	11	14	12	22	319	101	.291	.397	.391	.788
50	Reddy Mack	2265	1885	1889	19-23	524	1967	367	497	84	31	6	251	265	207	33				76		.253	.351	.336	.687

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/7/2013.

If nothing changes, Castro will be sitting somewhere in the low 20s or high 30s of this list by the end of the season. Overall, this list is filled with players who had very successful careers. It's the rare player who makes his debut at 20 or younger that doesn't perform well, absent obvious occurrences like injuries or war-time absence back in the day. Castro has already made two All-Star teams and received token MVP votes in 2011, suggesting that people thought he had not just potential, but TALENT. His production through 2012 are what induced Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to sign him through 2020 for $69 million--if he maintained his performance, he'd be a bargain. If he improved, he'd be a STEAL.

2013 hasn't been going Castro's way. Through Saturday, July 6th, his batting numbers have been underwhelming, but his fielding and base running have become sources of panic. One play in particular exemplifies Castro's season--in a game on July 4th against Oakland, he was on 2nd with Alfonso Soriano at the plate. Soriano hit a single to left, but Castro was thrown out on a good throw from Yoenis Cespedes, and the Oakland TV crew did not hold back in their thoughts on Castro's effort. He leads all shortstops in errors with 15, putting him on a pace for around 30 for the year and around 113 for his first four years. How does THAT rank all-time?

The inspiration for this post was my noticing that Castro is already 38th amongst active players in errors, and that the other players on that list have been playing for a lot longer than he has. To be fair, he plays a position that makes the most errors, but he's not showing improvement in the field that would suggest he's getting better. One thing should be glaringly obvious as you look at this list to the left--I included all of baseball history and not just from 1901, even though the modern game is VERY different from that in the 1800s--gloves were not routinely used until the 1890s, the baseball bore only vague similarities to that used today, and even certain things we take for granted (four balls for a walk, strikeouts, distance of the mound from home plate) hadn't been standardized, which is why I like having these numbers for historical completeness but rarely reference them--it was simply a different game.The players highlighted in yellow are Hall of Famers.

Let's cut this list down by first eliminating anyone whose career began prior to 1950 (by the way, what little I know about baseball in the 1800s is courtesy of the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract--if you consider yourself a baseball fan and don't own this book, I'd remedy that immediately):

We know most of these stories--Garry Templeton was a good hitter who absolutely did NOT take a walk (.304 batting average in his first four years and a .323 OBP), Don Buddin's career, to the extent that you ever heard of it was over pretty much after this span since there has NEVER been a time in baseball history when no-hit/no-field shortstops were in demand. Robin Yount played his way into center field, Maury Wills was dramatically overrated for his stolen bases, Dick Groat, Rick Burleson and Chris Speier all had solid Major League careers, and Mark Grudzielanek and Julio Franco became second basemen. If Castro maintains his error pace, he'll end up around 6th on this list, a list that goes back over 60 years and includes about 40 players with 2000 plate appearances or more in their first four years, a marker of regular play. That's not the kind of list he wants to be on.

 

Here's a more in-depth view of Castro's fielding:

								Errors					Double Plays
Year	Age	PA	RHB%	BIP%	GBIP%	Fld	F2O%	Tot	Cch	Fld	Thr	ROE
2010	20	4740	64%	72%	29%	460	85%	27	0	16	11	24
2011	21	6117	58%	74%	30%	635	85%	29	2	11	16	21
2012	22	6093	62%	75%	30%	617	88%	27	2	17	8	21
2013	23	3148	56%	75%	30%	280	84%	15	1	8	6	13
	4 Seasons	20098	60%	74%	30%	1992	86%	98	5	52	41	79
	MLB Averages		57%	75%	32%		89%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/7/2013.

For obvious reasons, shortstops and third basemen have more opportunities to make plays, and the Cubs are basically the same as the rest of baseball in the number of right-handed hitters they face and the balls in play to their shortstop. An interesting number is the column labeled F2O%, which is the percent of balls fielded that become outs. That difference may not seem like much (89% of balls fielded by Major League shortstops become outs, 86% for Castro), but it's more than meets the eye--this doesn't take range into account but merely looks at how well he does on balls he gets his glove on, and he's not up to Major League standards and going down as time passes. His errors are equal opportunity so it's not a simple fix of taking more infield practice--he needs work in both facets of handling ground balls. I'm intrigued enough by that F2O% to view it for all shortstops this year:

										Errors					Double Plays
Rk		Age	Tm	PA ▾	RHB%	BIP%	GBIP%	Fld	F2O%	Tot	Cch	Fld	Thr	ROE
1	J.J. Hardy	30	BAL	3314	50%	75%	30%	278	91%	7	0	3	4	5
2	Ian Desmond	27	WSN	3205	59%	76%	32%	314	90%	9	0	4	5	8
3	Alexei Ramirez	31	CHW	3151	58%	74%	29%	294	88%	14	0	9	5	10
4	Starlin Castro	23	CHC	3148	56%	75%	30%	280	84%	15	1	8	6	13
5	Jean Segura	23	MIL	3123	53%	76%	33%	338	89%	10	0	4	6	5
6	Jimmy Rollins	34	PHI	3107	62%	76%	32%	306	89%	8	1	3	4	5
7	Elvis Andrus	24	TEX	3080	54%	72%	30%	255	91%	8	0	6	2	6
8	Brandon Crawford	26	SFG	3033	61%	74%	29%	280	89%	8	1	3	4	3
9	Jhonny Peralta	31	DET	3019	46%	71%	31%	270	87%	4	0	1	3	3
10	Yunel Escobar	30	TBR	3018	52%	73%	31%	272	91%	4	0	1	3	1
11	Alcides Escobar	26	KCR	3015	47%	75%	31%	263	89%	11	2	3	6	7
12	Andrelton Simmons	23	ATL	2960	58%	75%	32%	328	93%	6	0	3	3	4
13	Zack Cozart	27	CIN	2910	54%	74%	31%	262	90%	7	0	0	7	4
14	Pete Kozma	25	STL	2791	55%	73%	35%	292	91%	4	0	2	2	2
15	Everth Cabrera	26	SDP	2700	56%	78%	33%	267	90%	4	0	2	2	3
16	Adeiny Hechavarria	24	MIA	2681	49%	77%	32%	219	90%	4	0	2	2	2
17	Brendan Ryan	31	SEA	2527	52%	75%	32%	247	89%	9	1	6	2	8
18	Stephen Drew	30	BOS	2456	55%	71%	31%	206	91%	3	0	2	1	3
19	Erick Aybar	29	LAA	2417	56%	76%	30%	211	80%	8	1	5	2	5
20	Pedro Florimon	26	MIN	2394	58%	79%	35%	287	89%	8	1	2	5	6
21	Didi Gregorius	23	ARI	2203	60%	75%	32%	199	92%	6	1	3	2	4
22	Jed Lowrie	29	OAK	2160	56%	77%	28%	185	88%	10	0	4	6	9
23	Troy Tulowitzki	28	COL	2150	59%	78%	34%	213	94%	1	0	0	1	0
24	Asdrubal Cabrera	27	CLE	2095	50%	72%	30%	168	89%	3	1	1	1	1
25	Munenori Kawasaki	32	TOR	1928	55%	76%	31%	175	89%	5	0	0	5	4
26	Clint Barmes	34	PIT	1859	64%	72%	34%	180	91%	8	1	4	3	7
27	Ruben Tejada	23	NYM	1839	56%	75%	34%	185	89%	8	0	2	6	6
28	Marwin Gonzalez	24	HOU	1803	56%	76%	33%	148	90%	8	1	5	2	5
29	Jayson Nix	30	NYY	1492	52%	74%	32%	150	90%	4	1	2	1	2
30	Ronny Cedeno	30	HOU	1411	57%	77%	32%	142	86%	11	0	7	4	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/7/2013.

Now Castro's season begins to stand out even more--where just about every other shortstop converts around 90% of balls hit to them into outs, he's now down to 84%. It could be worse--he could be Erick Aybar, but the Angels have bigger issues this year.

It's far too early to write off Castro for a career, and the real solution may only be a year or so away and was just promoted to Double-AA Tennessee--that's Javier Baez, who's hit 17 home runs and driven in 57. The fielding is...well, not good--31 errors in HALF A SEASON, but he's only 20 and could very easily be learning to truly play the position at higher levels. Those words sound eerily familiar, and the Cubs have shown no inclination to rush Baez through the minors. At some point big decisions will need to be made regarding the entire Cubs infield--they have a true good-field/no-hit at second in Darwin Barney, and what Castro's ceiling as a hitter is yet to be determined--will he have moderate-to-above-average power, or is he is what he is, somewhere around 10-15 home runs a year? If that's his destiny, I'm not sure the Cubs can afford two light hitters in their infield, and that assumes that Baez will be able to hit at the Major League level.

One last chart--this shows how shortstops have fielded with regard to major league averages for players whose careers began in 1950 or later:

It's a busy chart--I only included shortstops with at least 1000 chances, and to the best of my knowledge and ability, this includes only plays made at shortstop. E are errors, E/G Errors per Game, E/Ch Errors per Chance (essentially the inverse of fielding percent), Fld% Fielding Percent, lgFld% the League Fielding Percent and dFld% is the difference. RF/G is the Range Factor per Game, followed by the league and difference. Fielding percent and range factor are notoriously overrated stats but can still be used to make comparisons with league performance. In Castro's case, his .959 fielding percent is 12 points below the league fielding percent of .971. This particular sample includes 206 players, putting Castro at 18th-worst in this particular stat since 1950. In addition, look at the players above him--none were considered great shortstops, and I can safely state that none ever had anything even close to Castro's contract. Getting to balls doesn't appear to be a Castro problem as much as what happens after that.

Will the real Starlin Castro please stand up? The most troubling aspect is that by the time players reach 23 questions should be ANSWERED instead of asked, and players that still have questions marks are rarely owed over $60 million. The Cubs have made no secret of their plans to be competitive by around 2015, and they've made tremendous strides in pitching with the performances of Travis Wood and Jeff Samardzija. Matt Garza is destined to be in another uniform, but Castro was supposed to be one of the major building blocks, along with Anthony Rizzo, who's having his own issues this year. The Cubs aren't ready to give up on Castro yet, and I'd be very curious what his trade value would be anyway, but it's make-or-break time for him. He can go ahead and spin his wheels for the rest of 2013 since the team is going nowhere, but he needs start making steady progress. If that doesn't happen, the Cubs could be in real trouble going forward.