What's Been Going On

I had a plan for the baseball offseason, even started it with my Hall of Fame posts with the expectation I would continue through every position and then transition into other topics best covered in the offseason.

That plan has changed. I'm in the process of transitioning this blog and will make it public when all the i's are dotted and t's crossed, which should be soon. At this point I don't know if I will retain the blog name (or even if that matters), but I suspect my emphasis will remain the same--primarily baseball, with an emphasis on the Chicago teams since I have a healthy following there.

As I move forward, I'll probably cannibalize some of the work I did earlier in this blog as I update it to reflect new data, and as I do that I'll probably delete older pieces on this site. For example, one of the first posts I ever wrote was on stolen bases, and I'll update that right around the beginning of the 2014 season and then remove it from this site. However, I'll probably leave this site up for folks to poke around in if they wish--it somehow gets 100-200 hits a day even when I haven't written in quite some time.

What will NOT change is my emphasis or my desire, which is to TELL STORIES. A number without context is just another number, and since there's no shortage of people who can tell you what happened in a game and why (and do it FAR better than I can), I won't attempt to add something where I have nothing to contribute. This past year suggests there is an audience who wants a bit more depth in some of the subjects, particularly in baseball. In April 2013 I had around 35 Twitter followers--7 months later I'm at over 1,500, so I must have struck a chord somewhere. I've been the beneficiary of some very helpful boosts, and those people know who they are but still need to be reminded that I will ALWAYS BE GRATEFUL. This means you DB, JG, LK and BK.

As always, your continued support is appreciated and humbling. It's been a very interesting year and promises to become that much more so. I'll let you know where you can find me very soon.

The 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot (3)

My first two Hall of Fame (HOF) posts dealt with the newcomers to the 2014 ballot. This one will deal with the holdovers and cover several other areas as well. This table lists the holdovers on the 2014 HOF ballot, those that have managed to amass at least 5% of the ballots in the previous year:

											Batting Stats
Rk		YoB	% of Ballots	HOFm	HOFs	Yrs	WAR	WAR7	JAWS	Jpos
1	Craig Biggio	2nd	68.2%	169	57	20	64.94	41.61	53.28	57.0
2	Jack Morris	15th	67.7%	122	39	18	44.06	32.75	38.41	61.4
3	Jeff Bagwell	4th	59.6%	150	59	15	79.48	48.17	63.83	55.7
4	Mike Piazza	2nd	57.8%	207	62	16	59.20	43.08	51.14	43.1
5	Tim Raines	7th	52.2%	90	47	23	69.07	42.23	55.65	53.1
6	Lee Smith	12th	47.8%	135	13	18	29.59	21.14	25.36	34.4
7	Curt Schilling	2nd	38.8%	171	46	20	79.92	48.99	64.45	61.4
8	Roger Clemens	2nd	37.6%	332	73	24	140.30	66.31	103.30	61.4
9	Barry Bonds	2nd	36.2%	340	76	22	162.53	72.77	117.65	53.1
10	Edgar Martinez	5th	35.9%	132	50	18	68.28	43.51	55.89	55.0
11	Alan Trammell	13th	33.6%	118	40	20	70.35	44.63	57.49	54.7
12	Larry Walker	4th	21.6%	148	58	17	72.63	44.59	58.61	56.4
13	Fred McGriff	5th	20.7%	100	48	19	52.56	36.04	44.30	55.7
14	Mark McGwire	8th	16.9%	170	42	16	62.05	41.87	51.96	55.7
15	Don Mattingly	14th	13.2%	134	34	14	42.24	35.66	38.95	55.7
16	Sammy Sosa	2nd	12.5%	202	52	18	58.42	43.71	51.07	56.4
17	Rafael Palmeiro	4th	8.8%	178	57	20	71.77	38.77	55.27	55.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/6/2013.

The column headings are described in my first post. I'll break these players into discrete groups and discuss my thoughts. To see the entire Baseball-Reference (B-R) list with their career totals, you can click this link.

NO
That would be Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly and probably Alan Trammell. I'll have to get in contact with the Hall of Very Good (@HOVG) to see if he/she has room for them, because I think they all deserve enshrinement there, and in Trammell's case, I'd argue that he belongs in the REAL HOF, but he's never generated enough interest from the voters. I like Walker, McGriff and Mattingly but they all have issues--Walker with inflated numbers at Coors Field, McGriff hitting home runs and not much else and Mattingly just not playing long enough to accumulate counting stats. This table shows just how pronounced the Coors Field effect is:

Rk	I	Player	Split	From	To	G	OPS	OPStot	%	PA	PAtot	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1		Bobby Doerr	Home	1937	1951	954	.928	.823	112.8	4080	8028	3554	634	1120	246	46	145	742	465	283	.315	.396	.533	.928
2		Cy Williams	Home	1916	1930	880	.964	.858	112.4	3485	6811	3009	537	974	182	27	156	527	373	333	.324	.406	.558	.964
3		Dante Bichette	Home	1988	2001	848	.938	.835	112.3	3466	6856	3212	574	1053	214	21	177	696	193	482	.328	.365	.573	.938
4		Rico Petrocelli	Home	1963	1976	768	.843	.752	112.1	3025	6171	2617	369	713	141	12	134	465	332	444	.272	.354	.489	.843
5		Ian Kinsler	Home	2006	2013	538	.898	.804	111.7	2399	4791	2070	434	630	143	15	85	293	260	253	.304	.387	.511	.898
6		Chuck Klein	Home	1928	1944	887	1.028	.922	111.5	3635	7170	3289	661	1163	226	36	190	727	310	240	.354	.410	.618	1.028
7		Chico Fernandez	Home	1956	1963	438	.693	.622	111.4	1571	3078	1402	163	366	51	14	26	151	124	163	.261	.320	.373	.693
8		Ed Charles	Home	1962	1969	502	.807	.727	111.0	1907	3908	1695	246	490	76	20	53	236	166	238	.289	.355	.451	.807
9		Nelson Cruz	Home	2005	2013	405	.912	.823	110.8	1592	3182	1435	225	422	88	6	92	278	135	340	.294	.356	.556	.912
10		Bob Horner	Home	1978	1988	520	.929	.839	110.7	2145	4213	1901	333	560	90	4	142	415	198	241	.295	.359	.570	.929
11		Larry Walker	Home	1989	2005	986	1.068	.965	110.7	3996	8030	3429	789	1193	268	39	215	747	444	546	.348	.431	.637	1.068
12		Juan Uribe	Home	2001	2013	776	.795	.719	110.6	2830	5655	2587	348	714	143	27	104	369	166	461	.276	.323	.473	.795
13		Wally Judnich	Home	1940	1949	388	.908	.822	110.5	1513	3207	1287	209	388	79	13	54	226	205	134	.301	.399	.509	.908
14		Carson Bigbee	Home	1916	1926	559	.787	.713	110.4	2199	4669	1954	331	613	69	52	7	181	177	69	.314	.374	.413	.787
15		Jerry Lumpe	Home	1956	1967	700	.751	.681	110.3	2746	5438	2446	334	711	105	32	31	263	241	203	.291	.353	.398	.751
16		Hank Greenberg	Home	1930	1947	711	1.121	1.017	110.2	3086	6097	2592	594	876	198	38	205	733	468	402	.338	.440	.681	1.121
17		Todd Helton	Home	1997	2013	1141	1.048	.953	110.0	4841	9453	4038	874	1394	321	28	227	859	710	514	.345	.441	.607	1.048
18		Rudy York	Home	1934	1948	792	.929	.846	109.8	3302	6723	2897	479	882	152	30	158	656	390	387	.304	.388	.541	.929
19		Heinie Sand	Home	1923	1928	422	.755	.688	109.7	1774	3529	1497	262	424	91	11	10	140	215	165	.283	.377	.379	.755
20		Russ Wrightstone	Home	1920	1928	468	.854	.779	109.6	1648	3285	1498	250	482	81	11	44	232	116	70	.322	.375	.479	.854

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2013.

This shows players with the greatest difference between home OPS and their career OPS (OPStot), with the key stat being the % column which shows the difference between home vs. overall OPS. When 3 of the top 20 in this category played their home games at Coors Field, it's safe to say the park had an effect. Walker, McGriff, Mattingly and Trammell will probably lurk on the ballot for the entire 15 years, but I don't feel bad leaving them out--they were good, VERY good, but not worthy of HOF enshrinement.

MAYBE
These are Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Curt Schilling and Edgar Martinez. To see how players who are enshrined after a number of years gradually build momentum click here and look around. Players need to reach a critical mass (usually around 40-50%) at which point enough other writers join the bandwagon and eventually vote the player in around year 8 or 9. All of these players have solid credentials:
Morris--250+ wins, (alleged) good postseason pitching
Raines--solid speed/power guy
Smith--one-time all-time save leader
Schilling--2001 postseason pitching
Martinez--best DH of all time
I've oversimplified, but this is what the arguments boil down to. These are the discussions when Andre Dawson and Jim Rice are enshrined and the bar for induction moves downward. When the Pedro Martinez discussions begin, someone will look at his 210 career wins and say "Schilling had MORE," and totally dismiss the utter dominance that Martinez had in his career.

There is a huge distinction between career milestones and dominance. Curt Schilling DID have more career wins than Pedro Martinez and there were years where he was considered among the best pitchers, but Martinez was DOMINANT. Using just one stat, there have been 35 seasons since 1901 in which pitchers had an ERA+ of 200 or greater (min 20 starts)--Martinez had FIVE of them, Schilling 0. Morris' WAR7 suggests he was a very good pitcher who lasted a long time, but was possibly the Jamie Moyer (better, granted) of his day. Raines very well could be developing the momentum necessary for eventual enshrinement and I wouldn't say one word if he were to be elected--he is the quintessential on-the-fence candidate. I just happen to believe that if I have to think THAT hard about a player, he doesn't belong. I touched on problems that plague Edgar Martinez in the discussion of Frank Thomas in my previous post.

In no way do I want to diminish the careers of any of these men--they WERE among the best in their generation and I never want to blithely dismiss any candidate by stating "Well, he's not HOF worthy"--most players aren't. Over 18,000 players have put on a big league uniform and the HOF currently enshrines less than 2% of them. It's the Hall of FAME, not the Hall of "Hey I Remember That Guy."
PROGNOSIS--Morris YES (even though I wouldn't), everyone else NO (I'm very conflicted on Edgar Martinez). In other words, if I had a ballot, none of these players would get my vote but I would struggle mightily with Edgar Martinez.

NO BRAINER
I have absolutely no idea how Craig Biggio wasn't elected in 2013, none whatsoever that isn't connected to innuendo or some stupid issue of not electing players on their first ballot appearance (easily the STUPIDEST unwritten HOF voter rule). I'd be shocked if he isn't elected in 2014 but he might be aced out by a strong first-year class and the reticence of voters to enshrine more than 2-3 players a year. Biggio was the example Bill James used in the New Historical Baseball Abstract to completely blow my mind as to how to evaluate players (pp 361-364). He had Biggio rated as the 35th-best player of all-time, and at that time I was barely aware of Baseball-Reference, completely clueless on advanced metrics and had just started listening to 670 The Score out of Chicago. I thought this was IDIOTIC until I read further and followed James' logic. Biggio has the traditional numbers, 12,500 plate appearances, 3,000+ hits and did the most important thing a player (particularly a leadoff hitter) can do--he created runs, and if you check the link, you'll see that he's a relative rarity in that bunch that are typically power hitters. 
PROGNOSIS--YES, 82% of the vote

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
Which leaves Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa, with more on the way. These players range the spectrum of PED use all the way from suspected (Piazza) to acknowledged (McGwire) with every shade in between. This era will never go away--sometime in 2050 a Veterans' Committee will review any of these who don't get enshrined and examine the whole issue all over again. I suppose I should state where I stand:

I DON'T CARE

I don't, not one lick. I wish definitive evidence of PED use by ANY player, not just these exists and they had been dealt with administratively by MLB at the time, but the Collective Bargaining Agreement at the time did not explicitly ban these drugs. This site has comprehensive lists of those who used PEDS or were suspected--it's a bit out of date but covers the players I'm interested in.

PEDs do two primary things, build muscle mass and reduce inflammation, and I'm unclear as to which is the bigger benefit--I'd argue the reduced inflammation, which allows for quicker rebound from the rigors of baseball. Players were able to extend their careers because they could recover faster, and as a new CBA explicitly banned PEDs and instituted penalties, the older productive player is becoming a rarity again. This chart shows the number of players aged 37 or older with 400+ plate appearances in a year between 1960 and 2013:

It wasn't fair, but neither were amphetamines in the 1970s and 1980s. Besides, if PED use was as rampant as suspected (and I have no reason to believe otherwise), we're still down to around 7-10 players who vaulted themselves to the pinnacle of baseball achievement. I have a hard time believing PEDs made an average (certainly not a below-average) player great as much as taking a great player and extending his career 2-3 years and allowing the accumulation of counting stats. I don't expect everyone to agree with me, and to the extent and manner you wish, I'm more than happy to discuss it.

I also believe this will eventually become the thinking of the HOF voters, but it will have to be declared somehow. The BBWAA won't ever issue a statement like this because they'd never come anywhere close to being able to reach a consensus, but until something is done it's going to be the Wild West in voting as each voter takes his personal biases (which already happens, I know) and lets them run rampant. As much as I'd love to see the recommendations that Bill James puts forth in Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? (Chapter 29) I know I'll never see them, at least not anytime soon. Until then:
Jeff Bagwell          YES
Barry Bonds         YES
Roger Clemens    YES
Mark McGwire     NO
Rafael Palmeiro    NO
Mike Piazza          YES
Sammy Sosa         YES (but I wouldn't vote for him)

Even before the PED scandal became well-known I was already beginning to wonder about the whole notion of the automatic enshrinement of anyone who hit 500+ home runs. The 500+ club numbers 25 and can be broken into these groups:
Lively Ball--Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott
No-Name--Ted Williams
Expansion--Eddie Mathews, Mickey Mantle, Ernie Banks, Willie Mays, Harmon Killebrew, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Willie McCovey, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt
1990s on--Eddie Murray, McGwire, Palmeiro, Sosa, Bonds, Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield, Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez
Fully half of these players accomplished this feat in the past 20 years or so, with Albert Pujols banging on the door. As I look at the list of hitters with 400+ home runs (itself only 51) I find myself wavering, but I'll stick with it. The point in baseball is to score runs, not hit home runs--this chart shows the difference between hitting home runs and creating runs:

Players like Bonds hit home runs AND created runs, Stan Musial hit far fewer home runs but is still #3 on the runs created list and Mark McGwire is shown to be the one-dimensional player he was who didn't create runs other than by hitting home runs. The two blacked out boxes (Dave Kingman and Andre Dawson) didn't make the top 200 in runs created. Now I need to re-think this AGAIN since this paints Palmeiro in a far more flattering light. 

The rumors are out regarding Piazza and Bagwell, and until those rumors are substantiated, they're just that--rumors. As such, I'm very comfortable with both these players--Piazza is easily among the best, if not THE best offensive catchers in baseball history and Bagwell was among the best during a time that saw offensive first basemen by the bushel. Both Bonds and Clemens had HOF-worthy careers PRIOR to their alleged PED use. I cannot overstate that this is simply my opinion, which doesn't make me right or infallible. I just don't see withholding HOF enshrinement as a correction for an unfortunate period in  baseball history as a solution.

All this makes for a very confusing ballot. With the 5 players discussed in my previous post plus the 12 I discussed in varying degrees in this one, I would strongly argue that 10, maybe more deserve enshrinement. This false "protection" of the HOF from the taint of PED users has created a backlog of players that should already be in (Bonds and Clemens for sure as well as Piazza, Bagwell and Biggio) that will have implications for future elections. That's why this whole issue needs to be addressed in some manner--there is a very real possibility that it will keep DESERVING (and CLEAN) candidates out, which would be a huge failure. HOF Attendance is already on the decline for any number of reasons (try very hard to read the Wall Street Journal article referenced, but it may be behind a pay wall) and continued weirdness in the voting procedure won't help matters any, nor will Induction Days where all the inductees are dead.