The 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot (2)

In my last Hall of Fame (HOF) post I discussed the one-and-doners and those who are on the fence for the Hall of Very Good (@HOVG). This post will discuss the five primary new candidates, Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina and Frank Thomas. My next post will deal with the holdover candidates.

This chart is similar to the one shown in the first post--it's from Baseball-Reference (B-R) and shows only value numbers--you can access the full data showing career stats here:

											Batting Stats
Rk		YoB	% of Ballots	HOFm	HOFs	Yrs	WAR	WAR7	JAWS	Jpos
18	Greg Maddux	1st		254	70	23	106.83	56.29	81.56	61.4
19	Frank Thomas	1st		194	60	19	73.64	45.32	59.48	55.7
20	Mike Mussina	1st		121	54	18	83.01	44.48	63.75	61.4
21	Tom Glavine	1st		176	52	22	81.43	44.31	62.87	61.4
22	Jeff Kent	1st		122	51	17	55.19	35.60	45.40	57.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2013.

I explained the columns in my first post and suffice it to say that the WAR and WAR7 stats are the ones that interest me the most.

TOM GLAVINE
It will be impossible to separate Glavine from Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, and rightly so--they're one of the best, probably THE best trio of pitchers ever. This table shows pitchers with the best ERA+ since 1980:

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	BB	SO	ERA
1	Pedro Martinez	154	2827.1	1992	2009	20-37	476	409	46	17	219	100	.687	760	3154	2.93
2	Clayton Kershaw	146	1180.0	2008	2013	20-25	184	182	11	7	77	46	.626	393	1206	2.60
3	Roger Clemens	143	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	354	184	.658	1580	4672	3.12
4	Brandon Webb	142	1319.2	2003	2009	24-30	199	198	15	8	87	62	.584	435	1065	3.27
5	Johan Santana	136	2025.2	2000	2012	21-33	360	284	15	10	139	78	.641	567	1988	3.20
6	Randy Johnson	135	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	303	166	.646	1497	4875	3.29
7	Greg Maddux	132	5008.1	1986	2008	20-42	744	740	109	35	355	227	.610	999	3371	3.16
8	Roy Halladay	131	2749.1	1998	2013	21-36	416	390	67	20	203	105	.659	592	2117	3.38
9	Adam Wainwright	129	1314.2	2005	2013	23-31	248	185	16	6	99	57	.635	336	1127	3.11
10	Curt Schilling	127	3261.0	1988	2007	21-40	569	436	83	20	216	146	.597	711	3116	3.46
11	Roy Oswalt	127	2245.1	2001	2013	23-35	365	341	20	8	163	102	.615	520	1852	3.36
12	Justin Verlander	127	1772.0	2005	2013	22-30	266	266	20	6	137	77	.640	545	1671	3.41
13	Jered Weaver	127	1474.2	2006	2013	23-30	231	231	11	6	113	60	.653	390	1236	3.24
14	Felix Hernandez	127	1824.2	2005	2013	19-27	269	269	23	9	110	86	.561	526	1703	3.20
15	Kevin Brown	127	3256.1	1986	2005	21-40	486	476	72	17	211	144	.594	901	2397	3.28
16	John Tudor	126	1769.0	1980	1990	26-36	275	257	49	16	116	70	.624	466	977	3.07
17	Bret Saberhagen	126	2562.2	1984	2001	20-37	399	371	76	16	167	117	.588	471	1715	3.34
18	John Smoltz	125	3473.0	1988	2009	21-42	723	481	53	16	213	155	.579	1010	3084	3.33
19	Tim Hudson	124	2813.2	1999	2013	23-37	427	426	25	13	205	111	.649	846	1896	3.44
20	Dave Stieb	123	2766.0	1980	1998	22-40	425	394	96	29	168	129	.566	986	1617	3.40
21	Cole Hamels	123	1596.2	2006	2013	22-29	245	244	13	6	99	74	.572	394	1509	3.38
22	Mike Mussina	123	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	270	153	.638	785	2813	3.68
23	Jimmy Key	122	2591.2	1984	1998	23-37	470	389	34	13	186	117	.614	668	1538	3.51
24	Jose Rijo	121	1880.0	1984	2002	19-37	376	269	22	4	116	91	.560	663	1606	3.24
25	CC Sabathia	121	2775.1	2001	2013	20-32	415	415	37	12	205	115	.641	834	2389	3.60
26	Kevin Appier	121	2595.1	1989	2004	21-36	414	402	34	12	169	137	.552	933	1994	3.74
27	David Cone	121	2898.2	1986	2003	23-40	450	419	56	22	194	126	.606	1137	2668	3.46
28	Carlos Zambrano	120	1959.0	2001	2012	20-31	354	302	10	5	132	91	.592	898	1637	3.66
29	Matt Cain	119	1721.0	2005	2013	20-28	266	265	15	6	93	88	.514	579	1436	3.35
30	Cliff Lee	119	2075.1	2002	2013	23-34	315	311	28	12	139	86	.618	452	1752	3.51
31	Tom Glavine	118	4413.1	1987	2008	21-42	682	682	56	25	305	203	.600	1500	2607	3.54

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2013.

The most difficult part in analyzing one part of a multi-facet game is isolating just the one part (pitching) and leaving out the excellent offense the Braves put behind these three pitchers, but Glavine managed to be very effective and rack up counting stats at the tail end of his career where some other pitchers (Carlos Zambrano, Jimmy Key, Jose Rijo) simply reached their ends and weren't able to stay in baseball. When the Braves allowed Glavine to leave after the 2002 season he was effectively finished, but there's no doubt he belongs in the HOF. As much as I may malign the win as an evaluative method for pitchers, it's impossible to overlook 305 of them--it's in our consciousness far too much, and I'll go further into this notion when I discuss Mike Mussina.
ME--IN
PROGNOSIS--Hall of Fame, 1st ballot (to the extent that matters), 85% of votes

JEFF KENT
I touched on it briefly in my first post, but players like Jeff Kent pose the biggest issues for HOF voters--when their offensive output is viewed, it is often compared to other players at different positions, and in Kent's case I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers are compared to Frank Thomas', Rafael Palmeiro's or other players on the ballot and that he'll have "only" hit 377 home runs, in an era of offensive production unrivaled since the 1930s to boot. That's unfair to Kent and compares him to the wrong people--he should be compared to other second basemen, and this table does so for players since 1950:

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Jackie Robinson	134	3751	1950	1956	31-37	928	3120	592	970	166	29	97	477	523	191	.311	.416	.476	.892
2	Joe Morgan	132	11329	1963	1984	19-40	2649	9277	1650	2517	449	96	268	1133	1865	1015	.271	.392	.427	.819
3	Chase Utley	126	5671	2003	2013	24-34	1323	4910	852	1410	298	42	217	808	550	838	.287	.373	.498	.871
4	Robinson Cano	125	5791	2005	2013	22-30	1374	5336	799	1649	375	28	204	822	350	689	.309	.355	.504	.860
5	Bobby Grich	125	8220	1970	1986	21-37	2008	6890	1033	1833	320	47	224	864	1087	1278	.266	.371	.424	.794
6	Jeff Kent	123	9537	1992	2008	24-40	2298	8498	1320	2461	560	47	377	1518	801	1522	.290	.356	.500	.855
7	Dustin Pedroia	117	4548	2006	2013	22-29	1016	4029	651	1218	287	13	99	493	422	404	.302	.370	.454	.823
8	Ben Zobrist	117	3824	2006	2013	25-32	918	3280	482	861	195	29	104	459	467	617	.263	.354	.435	.789
9	Lou Whitaker	117	9967	1977	1995	20-38	2390	8570	1386	2369	420	65	244	1084	1197	1099	.276	.363	.426	.789
10	Roberto Alomar	116	10400	1988	2004	20-36	2379	9073	1508	2724	504	80	210	1134	1032	1140	.300	.371	.443	.814
11	Ryne Sandberg	114	9282	1981	1997	21-37	2164	8385	1318	2386	403	76	282	1061	761	1260	.285	.344	.452	.795
12	Craig Biggio	112	12504	1988	2007	22-41	2850	10876	1844	3060	668	55	291	1175	1160	1753	.281	.363	.433	.796
13	Ian Kinsler	111	4791	2006	2013	24-31	1066	4201	748	1145	249	23	156	539	462	568	.273	.349	.454	.804
14	Dan Uggla	110	5211	2006	2013	26-33	1227	4498	733	1106	231	16	231	680	596	1255	.246	.340	.458	.798
15	Davey Johnson	110	5465	1965	1978	22-35	1435	4797	564	1252	242	18	136	609	559	675	.261	.340	.404	.744

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2013.

This table ranks players by OPS+, which normalizes offensive production to both era and ballpark, and Kent fits in very favorably with other second basemen of the past 60+ years. He's easily the best power-hitting second basemen in this time frame, quite possibly of all-time and fielded his position adequately--FanGraphs has him as a negative value in defense but not terribly so.

Kent's has two problems, NEITHER of which are tied to his on-field performance:
1. There's another contemporary second basemen in Craig Biggio who really should have been selected last year. Since he garnered over 68% of the vote in his first year, he's almost certain to be elected this year, and irrational or not, there are voters who will NOT put two different players at second base on their ballots.
2. This is a CROWDED ballot once the holdovers are taken into account, and for inexplicable reasons HOF voters are averse to putting more than 2-3 names on a ballot, even though the rules allow for as many as 10. Somehow the "sanctity" of the HOF ballot is stuck in the era when there were only 16 Major League teams vs. the 30 of today. This will continue to be a problem until voters come to grips with the notion that twice as many players as in the past AND a worldwide talent pool results in...TWICE AS MANY GOOD PLAYERS. It's not going to get any easier going forward--these are players making their HOF voting debuts in the years going forward:
2015--Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz
2016--Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey Jr.
2017--Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez
ME--IN
PROGNOSIS--Hall of Fame, 3rd ballot (2016), will receive 45% of 2014 vote

GREG MADDUX
I will cover him as briefly as anyone:

He put up pitcher era numbers in a hitter's era

He was a 6'0", 170 lb. pitcher who had STUFF--not power, not one drop-dead pitch that batters never figured out. There's a function deep in the bowels of every player's B-R page that allows one to see how the player would have performed in different parks at different times. I was all set to show that for Maddux until it became close to irrelevant--no matter when or where, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball history, and did it without being dominating. He's truly a generational pitcher. 

ME--SERIOUSLY?!?
PROGNOSIS--Hall of Fame, 1st ballot, 95% of vote (and those 5% will have NO EXCUSE)

MIKE MUSSINA
This is going to become a major issue going forward unless baseball strategy is radically changed--the 300-game winner is DEAD, DEAD, DEAD, DEAD, DEAD. It's been said before--as long ago as 1963 Early Wynn was convinced HE was going to be the last pitcher who won 300 games. He was off by 10 with Randy Johnson being the latest to do so in 2009, but that door is now firmly shut. These are the current pitchers with the most wins:

Rk	Player	W ▾	From	To	G	GS	CG	SHO	L	W-L%	IP	ERA	ERA+
6	Andy Pettitte	256	1995	2013	531	521	26	4	153	.626	3316.0	3.85	117
12	Tim Hudson	205	1999	2013	427	426	25	13	111	.649	2813.2	3.44	124
13	CC Sabathia	205	2001	2013	415	415	37	12	115	.641	2775.1	3.60	121
14	Roy Halladay	203	1998	2013	416	390	67	20	105	.659	2749.1	3.38	131

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2013.

You are seeing this table correctly--Andy Pettitte probably shouldn't be on the list since he finished after this year, but these are the current pitchers with 200 wins. Even expanding it down to 150 wins to see who the up-and-comers are doesn't expand the list much. Winning 300 games is hard enough--15 wins over 20 seasons, and in an era in which starters are lucky to start as many 35 games a year, it's a numbers battle that's impossible to win. 

I mention this because Mussina won 270 games, which will somehow be construed as not meeting an important benchmark. He also had an excellent win percentage and ERA+ (better than Glavine's) and is easily part of the discussion of one of the best pitchers of his generation. He was CONSISTENT--he only won 20 games once (in his final year, oddly enough, and itself another dinosaur stat), but he maintained that consistency over a long period of time. The WAR7 metric was made for players like Mussina to show that they didn't just shoot up and then fall off but were able to have sustained success--his WAR7 of 44.5 works out to around 6.5 a season, which is a very solid All-Star type of season.

And he'll have the same issues as Jeff Kent--the numbers battle of how many players are elected and not meeting some arbitrary and outdated standard. Mussina very comfortably meets both the HOF Monitor and HOF Standards (see my post at FanGraphs that shows this) so his enshrinement won't somehow diminish it. He didn't win 300 wins, but still ranks 33rd all-time with a whole host of HOF pitchers behind him in that outdated stat, folks like Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, Carl Hubbell, Bob Gibson and many, many more.
ME--IN
PROGNOSIS--Hall of Fame, 4th ballot (2017), will receive 40% of 2014 vote

FRANK THOMAS
Frank Thomas will constitute a very interesting discussion, one that will be continued as Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz reach their respective times for HOF consideration--what SHOULD voters do with a designated hitter, and how is designated hitter defined anyway?

This table shows the players with the greatest percent of plate appearances as a DH:

Rk	Player	G	Gtot	%	PA	PAtot	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Travis Hafner	1043	1183	88.2	4442	4782	3766	608	1036	236	13	200	689	561	903	.275	.378	.504	.882
2	David Ortiz	1622	1969	82.4	7098	8249	6064	1077	1758	447	17	381	1245	948	1256	.290	.385	.558	.943
3	Hal McRae	1426	2084	68.4	5917	8059	5291	740	1555	366	47	145	823	495	582	.294	.357	.463	.820
4	Edgar Martinez	1403	2055	68.3	6218	8674	5111	935	1607	370	6	243	1003	986	913	.314	.428	.532	.959
5	Billy Butler	626	1015	61.7	2660	4208	2387	301	705	134	3	77	364	239	400	.295	.361	.451	.812
6	Harold Baines	1643	2830	58.1	6618	11092	5806	825	1690	293	11	236	981	752	845	.291	.370	.467	.837
7	Brad Fullmer	465	807	57.6	1879	3065	1701	260	469	110	9	79	291	132	241	.276	.334	.490	.825
8	Frank Thomas	1310	2322	56.4	5698	10075	4678	788	1288	256	5	269	881	901	874	.275	.394	.505	.899
9	Don Baylor	1284	2292	56.0	5391	9401	4678	735	1210	214	9	219	803	476	651	.259	.344	.449	.792
10	Cliff Johnson	747	1369	54.6	2823	4603	2440	354	646	118	6	115	435	326	428	.265	.354	.459	.813

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/6/2013.

A HUGE hat tip to the Baseball Play Index (@BRefPlayIndex) who told me how to improve on an earlier table I used. Frank Thomas, while thought of primarily for his offensive output and certainly no Keith Hernandez in the field, played a good number of games in the field. In other words, any attempt to pigeonhole him as a one-dimensional player isn't entirely accurate. As always, I appreciate when my ideas are improved upon by others, and I thank the BRefPlayIndex for bringing this to my attention.

Notwithstanding what I just wrote, there are no real surprises. David Ortiz playing in the field only occurs in the World Series, Edgar Martinez actually played more in the field (over 25% of the time) than he's given credit for, and it begs the question--what is the TRUE all-around ball player? The common answer is someone who plays the field, even though modern metrics show that for almost any position (click any of the links at the right that connect with FanGraphs all-time WAR values) a player's offense is worth around 4-5 times their defense. It's pretty easy to understand--a player CAN score four runs at once if the bases are full and they hit a home run, but it's hard for a player to boot a ball, error or otherwise that results in four runs scoring--it happens, but take this point to its furthest logical conclusion. The vast majority of runs are due to offense--in 2013, 92.6% of runs scored were earned. Another way to state it is that 7.4% were unearned, or the result of errors. Add any factor to account for lack of range, improper positioning or other defensive deficiencies may exist and it's still hard to conclude that anything more than 15% of runs are the result of bad defense.

If this is the case, why penalize players like Thomas or Martinez who were exceptional in one aspect of the game? No left fielder has ever been enshrined for their defensive capabilities, rightly so since they averaged around 2 fielding chances a game in 2013. This FanGraphs table shows the best-fielding left fielders in baseball history (they rank players in a position if they EVER played it)--you have to go VERY far down the list to find Ted Williams or others. But somehow the notion of the "all-around player" has entered the picture, even though in organized baseball worldwide, the National League (I believe) is the only holdout to the designated hitter. I'm not interested in the discussion on whether the DH should exist or not--it's been in effect for 40 years now and it's simply there.

Frank Thomas had a very interesting career. He was among the most dominant hitters EVER through his first 11 seasons--this chart shows where he ranks, 39th on the list. Pay particular attention to the players above AND below him--in many ways these are the players widely regarded as the best hitters in baseball history. In a perverse way, this caused Thomas problems as injuries slowed him down from 2001-2005, causing him to enter the extremely dangerous "what might have been" conversation, usually reserved for players destined for the Hall of Very Good. Thomas rebounded very nicely in 2006 and 2007, garnering MVP votes in both years. 

Thomas hit two important milestones, the 500+ HR club and a lifetime .300 batting average. I'll discuss the 500 club sometime soon and while the .300 average is nice, it's nowhere near as important as the 156 OPS+--take a look at THIS list:

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Babe Ruth	206	10622	1914	1935	19-40	2503	8399	2174	2873	506	136	714	2220	2062	1330	.342	.474	.690	1.164
2	Ted Williams	190	9788	1939	1960	20-41	2292	7706	1798	2654	525	71	521	1839	2021	709	.344	.482	.634	1.116
3	Barry Bonds	182	12606	1986	2007	21-42	2986	9847	2227	2935	601	77	762	1996	2558	1539	.298	.444	.607	1.051
4	Lou Gehrig	179	9663	1923	1939	20-36	2164	8001	1888	2721	534	163	493	1992	1508	790	.340	.447	.632	1.080
5	Rogers Hornsby	175	9480	1915	1937	19-41	2259	8173	1579	2930	541	169	301	1584	1038	679	.358	.434	.577	1.010
6	Mickey Mantle	172	9907	1951	1968	19-36	2401	8102	1676	2415	344	72	536	1509	1733	1710	.298	.421	.557	.977
7	Shoeless Joe Jackson	170	5693	1908	1920	20-32	1332	4981	873	1772	307	168	54	785	519	234	.356	.423	.517	.940
8	Ty Cobb	168	13082	1905	1928	18-41	3034	11434	2246	4189	724	295	117	1938	1249	681	.366	.433	.512	.945
9	Albert Pujols	165	8546	2001	2013	21-33	1958	7310	1425	2347	524	15	492	1498	1067	835	.321	.410	.599	1.008
10	Mark McGwire	163	7660	1986	2001	22-37	1874	6187	1167	1626	252	6	583	1414	1317	1596	.263	.394	.588	.982
11	Jimmie Foxx	163	9676	1925	1945	17-37	2317	8134	1751	2646	458	125	534	1922	1452	1311	.325	.428	.609	1.038
12	Stan Musial	159	12717	1941	1963	20-42	3026	10972	1949	3630	725	177	475	1951	1599	696	.331	.417	.559	.976
13	Johnny Mize	158	7370	1936	1953	23-40	1883	6443	1118	2011	367	83	359	1337	856	524	.312	.397	.562	.959
14	Hank Greenberg	158	6097	1930	1947	19-36	1394	5193	1051	1628	379	71	331	1276	852	844	.313	.412	.605	1.017
15	Tris Speaker	157	11992	1907	1928	19-40	2790	10195	1882	3514	792	222	117	1531	1381	394	.345	.428	.500	.928
16	Frank Thomas	156	10075	1990	2008	22-40	2322	8199	1494	2468	495	12	521	1704	1667	1397	.301	.419	.555	.974
17	Dick Allen	156	7315	1963	1977	21-35	1749	6332	1099	1848	320	79	351	1119	894	1556	.292	.378	.534	.912
18	Willie Mays	156	12496	1951	1973	20-42	2992	10881	2062	3283	523	140	660	1903	1464	1526	.302	.384	.557	.941
19	Joey Votto	155	3790	2007	2013	23-29	890	3180	529	999	227	12	157	530	564	700	.314	.419	.541	.960
20	Hank Aaron	155	13941	1954	1976	20-42	3298	12364	2174	3771	624	98	755	2297	1402	1383	.305	.374	.555	.928
21	Joe DiMaggio	155	7673	1936	1951	21-36	1736	6821	1390	2214	389	131	361	1537	790	369	.325	.398	.579	.977
22	Mel Ott	155	11348	1926	1947	17-38	2730	9456	1859	2876	488	72	511	1860	1708	896	.304	.414	.533	.947
23	Miguel Cabrera	154	7126	2003	2013	20-30	1660	6218	1064	1995	412	14	365	1260	799	1201	.321	.399	.568	.967
24	Manny Ramirez	154	9774	1993	2011	21-39	2302	8244	1544	2574	547	20	555	1831	1329	1813	.312	.411	.585	.996
25	Frank Robinson	154	11742	1956	1976	20-40	2808	10006	1829	2943	528	72	586	1812	1420	1532	.294	.389	.537	.926

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2013.

Like any other stat, OPS+ alone doesn't  tell the entire story of a player's career, but think about what it shows--he had an OPS significantly higher than average in a time of INCREASED OFFENSE. He wasn't just the beneficiary of newer, hitter-friendly parks, he took great advantage of it, more so than just about any other contemporary hitter. That's what the HOF is supposed to recognize--not merely the amassing of career numbers, but a level of dominance, and Thomas did that. He hit 40 or more home runs five times AND maintained a decent average--if he had played more at first, would we really be viewing him in a different light?
ME--IN
PROGNOSIS--Hall of Fame, 2nd ballot (2015), will receive 55% of 2014 vote

My next post will discuss the holdover candidates and baseball's unfortunate PED Era of 1995-2007. I don't hold up the Hall of Fame as the ultimate arbiter of baseball excellence, but it is a marker. As advanced metrics creep further into career evaluations (thanks Jonny Gomes!) perhaps these discussions will be far more objective than in the past, but it's too soon to state that with certainty. The best we can do is move the conversation forward and review the players in the proper context, evaluating what they did well and giving their "deficiencies" the correct weight (if any).