The Dunn

I don't claim to be the most original person--I can research questions but I'm not so good at actually coming up with them, which is why I'm highly appreciative of those who can. I saw this last night on Twitter from Comcast SportsNetChicago's Christopher Kamka (@ckamka):

Tonight was Adam Dunn's 117th career "Dunn" (What I call a game with at least one HR, BB, SO). 5th all-time (1916-current)
— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) September 17, 2013

Adam Dunn is the epitome of the three-outcome hitter. For a brief period these players seemed to be rather prevalent--this somewhat lengthy list shows all players with at least 30 HR, 100 BB and 100 KO in a season (keep on scrolling, I write after this):

Rk	Player	Year	HR	BB	SO	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Adam Dunn	2012	41	105	222	CHW	151	649	539	87	110	19	0	96	2	1	.204	.333	.468	.800
2	Jose Bautista	2011	43	132	111	TOR	149	655	513	105	155	24	2	103	9	5	.302	.447	.608	1.056
3	Prince Fielder	2011	38	107	106	MIL	162	692	569	95	170	36	1	120	1	1	.299	.415	.566	.981
4	Jose Bautista	2010	54	100	116	TOR	161	683	569	109	148	35	3	124	9	2	.260	.378	.617	.995
5	Prince Fielder	2010	32	114	138	MIL	161	714	578	94	151	25	0	83	1	0	.261	.401	.471	.871
6	Prince Fielder	2009	46	110	138	MIL	162	719	591	103	177	35	3	141	2	3	.299	.412	.602	1.014
7	Adrian Gonzalez	2009	40	119	109	SDP	160	681	552	90	153	27	2	99	1	1	.277	.407	.551	.958
8	Adam Dunn	2009	38	116	177	WSN	159	668	546	81	146	29	0	105	0	1	.267	.398	.529	.928
9	Adam Dunn	2008	40	122	164	TOT	158	651	517	79	122	23	0	100	2	1	.236	.386	.513	.898
10	Pat Burrell	2008	33	102	136	PHI	157	645	536	74	134	33	3	86	0	0	.250	.367	.507	.875
11	Jack Cust	2008	33	111	197	OAK	148	598	481	77	111	19	0	77	0	0	.231	.375	.476	.851
12	Adam Dunn	2007	40	101	165	CIN	152	632	522	101	138	27	2	106	9	2	.264	.386	.554	.940
13	Ryan Howard	2007	47	107	199	PHI	144	648	529	94	142	26	0	136	1	0	.268	.392	.584	.976
14	Pat Burrell	2007	30	114	120	PHI	155	598	472	77	121	26	0	97	0	0	.256	.400	.502	.902
15	David Ortiz	2007	35	111	103	BOS	149	667	549	116	182	52	1	117	3	1	.332	.445	.621	1.066
16	Carlos Pena	2007	46	103	142	TBD	148	612	490	99	138	29	1	121	1	0	.282	.411	.627	1.037
17	Travis Hafner	2006	42	100	111	CLE	129	564	454	100	140	31	1	117	0	0	.308	.439	.659	1.097
18	David Ortiz	2006	54	119	117	BOS	151	686	558	115	160	29	2	137	1	0	.287	.413	.636	1.049
19	Manny Ramirez	2006	35	100	102	BOS	130	558	449	79	144	27	1	102	0	1	.321	.439	.619	1.058
20	Jason Giambi	2006	37	110	106	NYY	139	579	446	92	113	25	0	113	2	0	.253	.413	.558	.971
21	Jim Thome	2006	42	107	147	CHW	143	610	490	108	141	26	0	109	0	0	.288	.416	.598	1.014
22	Jason Bay	2006	35	102	156	PIT	159	689	570	101	163	29	3	109	11	2	.286	.396	.532	.928
23	Adam Dunn	2006	40	112	194	CIN	160	683	561	99	131	24	0	92	7	0	.234	.365	.490	.855
24	Ryan Howard	2006	58	108	181	PHI	159	704	581	104	182	25	1	149	0	0	.313	.425	.659	1.084
25	Adam Dunn	2005	40	114	168	CIN	160	671	543	107	134	35	2	101	4	2	.247	.387	.540	.927
26	David Ortiz	2005	47	102	124	BOS	159	713	601	119	180	40	1	148	1	0	.300	.397	.604	1.001
27	Jason Giambi	2005	32	108	109	NYY	139	545	417	74	113	14	0	87	0	0	.271	.440	.535	.975
28	Brad Wilkerson	2004	32	106	152	MON	160	688	572	112	146	39	2	67	13	6	.255	.374	.498	.872
29	Adam Dunn	2004	46	108	195	CIN	161	681	568	105	151	34	0	102	6	1	.266	.388	.569	.956
30	Jim Edmonds	2004	42	101	150	STL	153	612	498	102	150	38	3	111	8	3	.301	.418	.643	1.061
31	Bobby Abreu	2004	30	127	116	PHI	159	713	574	118	173	47	1	105	40	5	.301	.428	.544	.971
32	Lance Berkman	2004	30	127	101	HOU	160	687	544	104	172	40	3	106	9	7	.316	.450	.566	1.016
33	J.D. Drew	2004	31	118	116	ATL	145	645	518	118	158	28	8	93	12	3	.305	.436	.569	1.006
34	Jim Thome	2004	42	104	144	PHI	143	618	508	97	139	28	1	105	0	2	.274	.396	.581	.977
35	Carlos Delgado	2003	42	109	137	TOR	161	705	570	117	172	38	1	145	0	0	.302	.426	.593	1.019
36	Jason Giambi	2003	41	129	140	NYY	156	690	535	97	134	25	0	107	2	1	.250	.412	.527	.939
37	Jim Thome	2003	47	111	182	PHI	159	698	578	111	154	30	3	131	0	3	.266	.385	.573	.958
38	Frank Thomas	2003	42	100	115	CHW	153	662	546	87	146	35	0	105	0	0	.267	.390	.562	.952
39	Jason Giambi	2002	41	109	112	NYY	155	689	560	120	176	34	1	122	2	2	.314	.435	.598	1.034
40	Jim Thome	2002	52	122	139	CLE	147	613	480	101	146	19	2	118	1	2	.304	.445	.677	1.122
41	Lance Berkman	2002	42	107	118	HOU	158	692	578	106	169	35	2	128	8	4	.292	.405	.578	.982
42	Sammy Sosa	2002	49	103	144	CHC	150	666	556	122	160	19	2	108	2	0	.288	.399	.594	.993
43	Jeff Bagwell	2002	31	101	130	HOU	158	691	571	94	166	33	2	98	7	3	.291	.401	.518	.919
44	Carlos Delgado	2002	33	102	126	TOR	143	628	505	103	140	34	2	108	1	0	.277	.406	.549	.955
45	Bobby Abreu	2001	31	106	137	PHI	162	704	588	118	170	48	4	110	36	14	.289	.393	.543	.936
46	Sammy Sosa	2001	64	116	153	CHC	160	711	577	146	189	34	5	160	0	2	.328	.437	.737	1.174
47	Jeff Bagwell	2001	39	106	135	HOU	161	717	600	126	173	43	4	130	11	3	.288	.397	.568	.966
48	Carlos Delgado	2001	39	111	136	TOR	162	704	574	102	160	31	1	102	3	0	.279	.408	.540	.948
49	Jim Thome	2001	49	111	185	CLE	156	644	526	101	153	26	1	124	0	1	.291	.416	.624	1.040
50	Troy Glaus	2001	41	107	158	ANA	161	708	588	100	147	38	2	108	10	3	.250	.367	.531	.898
51	Carlos Delgado	2000	41	123	104	TOR	162	711	569	115	196	57	1	137	0	1	.344	.470	.664	1.134
52	Jim Thome	2000	37	118	171	CLE	158	684	557	106	150	33	1	106	1	0	.269	.398	.531	.929
53	Alex Rodriguez	2000	41	100	121	SEA	148	672	554	134	175	34	2	132	15	4	.316	.420	.606	1.026
54	Troy Glaus	2000	47	112	163	ANA	159	678	563	120	160	37	1	102	14	11	.284	.404	.604	1.008
55	Jim Edmonds	2000	42	103	167	STL	152	643	525	129	155	25	0	108	10	3	.295	.411	.583	.994
56	Tim Salmon	2000	34	104	139	ANA	158	680	568	108	165	36	2	97	0	2	.290	.404	.540	.945
57	Jeff Bagwell	2000	47	107	116	HOU	159	719	590	152	183	37	1	132	9	6	.310	.424	.615	1.039
58	Jim Thome	1999	33	127	171	CLE	146	629	494	101	137	27	2	108	0	0	.277	.426	.540	.967
59	Jeff Bagwell	1999	42	149	127	HOU	162	729	562	143	171	35	0	126	30	11	.304	.454	.591	1.045
60	Jason Giambi	1999	33	105	106	OAK	158	695	575	115	181	36	1	123	1	1	.315	.422	.553	.975
61	John Jaha	1999	35	101	129	OAK	142	570	457	93	126	23	0	111	2	0	.276	.414	.556	.970
62	Mark McGwire	1999	65	133	141	STL	153	661	521	118	145	21	1	147	0	0	.278	.424	.697	1.120
63	Mark McGwire	1998	70	162	155	STL	155	681	509	130	152	21	0	147	1	0	.299	.470	.752	1.222
64	Jeff Bagwell	1997	43	127	122	HOU	162	717	566	109	162	40	2	135	31	10	.286	.425	.592	1.017
65	Mark McGwire	1997	58	101	159	TOT	156	657	540	86	148	27	0	123	3	0	.274	.393	.646	1.039
66	Jim Thome	1997	40	120	146	CLE	147	627	496	104	142	25	0	102	1	1	.286	.423	.579	1.001
67	Jay Buhner	1997	40	119	175	SEA	157	665	540	104	131	18	2	109	0	0	.243	.383	.506	.889
68	Jim Thome	1996	38	123	141	CLE	151	636	505	122	157	28	5	116	2	2	.311	.450	.612	1.062
69	Jeff Bagwell	1996	31	135	114	HOU	162	719	568	111	179	48	2	120	21	7	.315	.451	.570	1.021
70	Mark McGwire	1996	52	116	112	OAK	130	548	423	104	132	21	0	113	0	0	.312	.467	.730	1.198
71	Mickey Tettleton	1995	32	107	110	TEX	134	547	429	76	102	19	1	78	0	0	.238	.396	.510	.906
72	Mickey Tettleton	1993	32	109	139	DET	152	637	522	79	128	25	4	110	3	7	.245	.372	.492	.864
73	Mickey Tettleton	1992	32	122	137	DET	157	654	525	82	125	25	0	83	0	6	.238	.379	.469	.848
74	Mickey Tettleton	1991	31	101	131	DET	154	608	501	85	132	17	2	89	3	3	.263	.387	.491	.878
75	Fred McGriff	1991	31	105	135	SDP	153	642	528	84	147	19	1	106	4	1	.278	.396	.494	.890
76	Frank Thomas	1991	32	138	112	CHW	158	701	559	104	178	31	2	109	1	2	.318	.453	.553	1.006
77	Mark McGwire	1990	39	110	116	OAK	156	650	523	87	123	16	0	108	2	1	.235	.370	.489	.859
78	Fred McGriff	1989	36	119	132	TOR	161	680	551	98	148	27	3	92	7	4	.269	.399	.525	.924
79	Dale Murphy	1987	44	115	136	ATL	159	693	566	115	167	27	1	105	16	6	.295	.417	.580	.997
80	Jack Clark	1987	35	136	139	STL	131	559	419	93	120	23	1	106	1	2	.286	.459	.597	1.055
81	Mike Schmidt	1983	40	128	148	PHI	154	669	534	104	136	16	4	109	7	8	.255	.399	.524	.923
82	Mike Schmidt	1982	35	107	131	PHI	148	631	514	108	144	26	3	87	14	7	.280	.403	.547	.949
83	Jason Thompson	1982	31	101	107	PIT	156	662	550	87	156	32	0	101	1	0	.284	.391	.511	.902
84	Dwight Evans	1982	32	112	125	BOS	162	727	609	122	178	37	7	98	3	2	.292	.402	.534	.936
85	Mike Schmidt	1979	45	120	115	PHI	160	675	541	109	137	25	4	114	9	5	.253	.386	.564	.950
86	Ken Singleton	1979	35	109	118	BAL	159	688	570	93	168	29	1	111	3	1	.295	.405	.533	.938
87	Greg Luzinski	1978	35	100	135	PHI	155	657	540	85	143	32	2	101	8	7	.265	.388	.526	.914
88	Mike Schmidt	1977	38	104	122	PHI	154	667	544	114	149	27	11	101	15	8	.274	.393	.574	.967
89	Mike Schmidt	1976	38	100	149	PHI	160	705	584	112	153	31	4	107	14	9	.262	.376	.524	.900
90	Mike Schmidt	1975	38	101	180	PHI	158	674	562	93	140	34	3	95	29	12	.249	.367	.523	.890
91	Mike Schmidt	1974	36	106	138	PHI	162	686	568	108	160	28	7	116	23	12	.282	.395	.546	.941
92	Jim Wynn	1974	32	108	104	LAD	150	656	535	104	145	17	4	108	18	15	.271	.387	.497	.884
93	Darrell Evans	1973	41	124	104	ATL	161	733	595	114	167	25	8	104	6	3	.281	.403	.556	.959
94	Frank Howard	1970	44	132	125	WSA	161	706	566	90	160	15	1	126	1	2	.283	.416	.546	.962
95	Jim Wynn	1969	33	148	142	HOU	149	653	495	113	133	17	1	87	23	7	.269	.436	.507	.943
96	Reggie Jackson	1969	47	114	142	OAK	152	678	549	123	151	36	3	118	13	5	.275	.410	.608	1.018
97	Harmon Killebrew	1967	44	131	111	MIN	163	689	547	105	147	24	1	113	1	0	.269	.408	.558	.965
98	Harmon Killebrew	1962	48	106	142	MIN	155	666	552	85	134	21	1	126	1	2	.243	.366	.545	.912
99	Harmon Killebrew	1961	46	107	109	MIN	150	656	541	94	156	20	7	122	1	2	.288	.405	.606	1.012
100	Mickey Mantle	1961	54	126	112	NYY	153	646	514	131	163	16	6	128	12	1	.317	.448	.687	1.135
101	Eddie Mathews	1960	39	111	113	MLN	153	671	548	108	152	19	7	124	7	3	.277	.397	.551	.948
102	Mickey Mantle	1960	40	111	125	NYY	153	643	527	119	145	17	6	94	14	3	.275	.399	.558	.957
103	Mickey Mantle	1958	42	129	120	NYY	150	654	519	127	158	21	1	97	18	3	.304	.443	.592	1.035
104	Charlie Keller	1946	30	113	101	NYY	150	655	538	98	148	29	10	101	1	4	.275	.405	.533	.938
105	Dolph Camilli	1941	34	104	115	BRO	149	641	529	92	151	29	6	120	3		.285	.407	.556	.962
106	Hank Greenberg	1937	40	102	101	DET	154	701	594	137	200	49	14	183	8	3	.337	.436	.668	1.105
107	Jimmie Foxx	1936	41	105	119	BOS	155	693	585	130	198	32	8	143	13	4	.338	.440	.631	1.071

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

I put the entire list in for a reason--it might seem large but it's really not, only 107 seasons out of over 40,000 player-seasons (I'm leaving pitchers out). It's also very obvious when this trend began as almost 75% of these seasons occurred after 1990. Attitudes toward the strikeout have changed over time--I use this chart as my Twitter pic:

The incidence of strikeouts began to increase dramatically around 1950. Smarter people than me can explain why--there were no new stadiums or expansion that stimulated that trend, factors that DID definitely play a role in the increased strikeouts that began around 1990.









This chart shows the players with the most career Dunns--data is through Sunday, September 15th since Baseball-Reference is being unusually slow in updating the data from Monday's games:

If three-outcome hitters like Dunn, Jack Cust or Mark Reynolds were ever truly ascendant (and that's debatable), it's definitely on the decline now. A look at this list shows players who were very good overall hitters, not just swing-for-the-fencers and also very good all-around players, with some notable exceptions.







 






I'll finish this brief post with a very interesting chart--it shows the prevalence of Dunns over time:

A PhD in statistics isn't necessary to see the obvious increase in the number of these games. It IS a different game today--the new ballparks of the 1990s are far more hitter-friendly, hitters go to the plate dressed for combat and any number of rules have taken the inside pitch away from pitchers. But that was then--baseball entered a new era of pitcher supremacy beginning around 2007, and whether it's short-term or long is yet to be determined. The three-outcome hitter with defensive shortcomings is an affordable luxury in times of greater offensive output (or as a DH) but an absolute liability when pitching is dominant and each out becomes that much more valuable. The Dunn will never go away, but it probably won't  reach the heights seen around 2000.