The Muff and Boner Index Explained

 Since I've managed to get it so that I can easily calculate the Muff and Boner Index, I'll update it weekly. This post gives further explanation into each category and how it's calculated:

PITCHING MISTAKES

No one argues that a blown save (BS) is a bad event--it's the literal grasping defeat from the jaws of victory (if you accept that anything literal can occur in the use of a metaphor). One could go so far as to say I should weight blown saves (and every other metric, for that matter), and it's a valid point. However, blown saves, like every other measure that goes into the index have the same weight. That doesn't mean I can't change my mind later.

Balks (BK), wild pitches (WP) and passed balls (PB) are what they are. I've only begun tabulating when these occurrences directly translate into a run(s), so that isn't included here. What IS included is when THAT PRECISE EVENT allowed a run to score (EP). Two examples from April 30th games:

1.  In the Mets-Marlins games, Mets pitcher Brandon Lyon threw a wild pitch allowing Juan Pierre to score. Bad enough, but it was also the last play of the game, allowing the Marlins a rare victory. This IS tabulated since that wild pitch directly allowed the run.

2. In the Nationals-Braves game, Gio Gonzalez threw a wild pitch to Justin Upton, moving Chris Johnson to second. Two hitters later, Freddie Freeman drove him in with a single, and the data shows that very few runners score from first on a single, and Johnson isn't one of those players. This number is NOT tabulated, but that wild pitch led to a run--it's just the way I amass the data requires me to manually make note of it, and I just began doing so. Unearned runs (unER) are also included.

OFFENSIVE MISTAKES

Both of these are self-explanatory:

Base running mistakes (eBR)--these are instances where the base runner is thrown out trying to advance. For example, in the Sunday, April 28th Rays-White Sox game, Adam Dunn singled with Alex Rios on second and Paul Konerko on first. Rios scored and Konerko was thrown out by a mile trying to advance to third. THAT'S a base running mistake. These mistakes DO NOT include force outs, since it's not the fault of a runner on first that a ball is hit directly to the shortstop for an easy out. Anything scored as a fielder's choice IS counted as a mistake, since this implies that the runner didn't absolutely have to advance.

Bunting mistakes (eBU)--I am curious on the efficiency of sacrifice bunts, but that's not what is measured here. These are bunts with a runner on base that don't advance the runner, or in other words, any bunt that is NOT a hit or a sacrifice. Bunting for a hit works--one way to look at it is to see how often a player attempts to bunt with no one on base and succeeds--they bat around .330, give or take. If a runner tries to bunt with the bases empty and is out, that is NOT included--it's just another at-bat. If I was smart, I'd tabulate those most egregious of errors, the bunt double play, because they do occur.

ERRORS (E) are exactly what they are. They may not line up exactly with MLB totals for any number of reasons, but it's not the number that is important as much as the differential between a team's errors and an opponent's.

STOLEN BASES

I do an index for stolen bases:

Team Stolen Bases + Opponent Caught Stealing  + Opponent Pickoffs - Team Caught Stealing - Opponent Stolen Bases - Team Pickoffs
This accounts for any league differences in base stealing tendencies and shows the NET impact of stealing.

THE BIG IMPROVEMENT

I've been doing this off and on for the past couple of years and had the brainstorm (you can still smell the ozone in the air) that every Muff and Boner a team commits is a positive entry for the OTHER TEAM. Every wild pitch is a gift to the other team, every error is an opportunity for the other team. Almost every stat in team sports is a mirror, a reflection on BOTH teams, and the Muff and Boner Index is the same. The last time this was mentioned on 670 AM The Score in Chicago, Terry Boers wondered if any of these numbers really had any meaning, and given the time of the season (only about two weeks into the 2013 season) he was right. However, by showing both sides of the ledger, it becomes apparent (and pretty obvious) that if a team makes more Muffs and Boners than it is the recipient of, it will have less success, and the numbers bear that out.

In the end, the Muff and Boner Index is just a way to tabulate disparate little things that taken together can add up to an explanation of a team's success or lack thereof. Take it for what it is, my way of quantifying the mundane and difficult-to-measure.