Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Rays Pitching--Historic on Multiple Levels

There have been 1,383 postseason games through the games of Tuesday, October 8th: 
World Series (1903, 1905-1993, 1995-2012) 625 
League Championship Series (1969-2012)     438 
League Division Series (1981, 1995-2013)     316 
Wild Card Series (2012-2013)                               4 
Given that there have been 206,017 games since the National Association began play in 1871, postseason play is a small slice of baseball history. Tampa Bay made entries into it in two ways in their series-losing loss to the Red Sox.

The Rays began the game with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound for the start. The 1st inning was easy, a 12-pitch 3-up-3-down inning, but he got off to a rocky start in the 2nd by walking David Ortiz and Mike Napoli and giving up a single to Daniel Nava to load the bases. Joe Maddon had seen enough and brought in Jamey Wright to replace him, prompting this tweet:
Beats me, I wasn't watching the game, so I looked it up--this Baseball-Reference table shows pitchers with postseason starts that lasted less than 1 inning (i.e., 2 or less outs): 
Rk Player Date Series Gm# Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc BF ERA
1 Johnny Cueto 2012-10-06 NLDS 1 CIN SFG W 5-2 GS-1 0.1 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 4 52 1 0.00
2 John Thomson 2004-10-09 NLDS 3 ATL HOU L 5-8 GS-1 0.1 1 0 0 1 0 0 8 4 48 3 0.00
3 Rick Ankiel 2000-10-12 NLCS 2 STL NYM L 5-6 GS-1 0.2 1 2 2 3 1 0 33 14 40 6 27.00
4 Gil Heredia 2000-10-08 ALDS 5 OAK NYY L 5-7 GS-1 ,L 0.1 4 6 6 2 0 0 23 11 17 7 162.00
5 Al Leiter 1999-10-19 NLCS 6 NYM ATL L 9-10 GS-1 0.0 2 5 5 1 0 0 25 6 inf
6 Jaret Wright 1998-10-06 ALCS 1 CLE NYY L 2-7 GS-1 ,L 0.2 5 5 5 1 1 0 36 18 22 8 67.50
7 Dwight Gooden 1998-09-30 ALDS 2 CLE BOS W 9-5 GS-1 0.1 1 2 2 2 1 0 22 8 40 4 54.00
8 Donovan Osborne 1996-10-17 NLCS 7 STL ATL L 0-15 GS-1 ,L 0.2 5 6 6 1 0 0 23 13 17 9 81.00
9 Steve Avery 1992-10-11 NLCS 5 ATL PIT L 1-7 GS-1 ,L 0.1 5 4 4 0 0 0 30 18 25 6 108.00
10 John Smiley 1991-10-17 NLCS 7 PIT ATL L 0-4 GS-1 ,L 0.2 3 3 3 1 1 1 27 16 34 6 40.50
11 Rick Reuschel 1989-10-05 NLCS 2 SFG CHC L 5-9 GS-1 ,L 0.2 5 5 5 0 1 0 18 14 23 7 67.50
12 Mark Thurmond 1984-10-14 WS 5 SDP DET L 4-8 GS-1 0.1 5 3 3 0 0 1 15 9 29 6 81.00
13 Ed Whitson 1984-10-10 WS 2 SDP DET W 5-3 GS-1 0.2 5 3 3 0 0 0 17 11 30 7 40.50
14 Bob Welch 1981-10-24 WS 4 LAD NYY W 8-7 GS-0 0.0 3 2 2 1 0 0 16 6 35 4 inf
15 Larry Christenson 1980-10-18 WS 4 PHI KCR L 3-5 GS-1 ,L 0.1 5 4 4 0 0 1 22 14 25 6 108.00
16 Bruce Kison 1979-10-10 WS 1 PIT BAL L 4-5 GS-1 ,L 0.1 3 5 4 2 0 1 27 11 25 7 108.00
17 Dennis Leonard 1976-10-14 ALCS 5 KCR NYY L 6-7 GS-1 0.0 3 2 2 0 0 0 36 3 inf
18 Doug Rau 1974-10-08 NLCS 3 LAD PIT L 0-7 GS-1 ,L 0.2 3 5 3 1 0 2 29 7 40.50
19 Ken Holtzman 1973-10-17 WS 4 OAK NYM L 1-6 GS-1 ,L 0.1 4 3 3 1 0 1 30 6 81.00
20 Vida Blue 1973-10-06 ALCS 1 OAK BAL L 0-6 GS-1 ,L 0.2 3 4 4 2 2 0 30 7 54.00
21 Bob Moose 1972-10-08 NLCS 2 PIT CIN L 3-5 GS-0 ,L 0.0 5 4 4 0 0 0 24 5 inf
22 Luke Walker 1971-10-13 WS 4 PIT BAL W 4-3 GS-1 0.2 3 3 3 1 0 0 33 6 40.50
23 Jose Santiago 1967-10-08 WS 4 BOS STL L 0-6 GS-1 ,L 0.2 6 4 4 0 0 0 24 8 54.00
24 Ray Sadecki 1964-10-11 WS 4 STL NYY W 4-3 GS-1 0.1 4 3 2 0 0 0 33 4 54.00
25 Joey Jay 1961-10-09 WS 5 CIN NYY L 5-13 GS-1 ,L 0.2 4 4 4 0 0 1 28 6 54.00
26 Vinegar Bend Mizell 1960-10-08 WS 3 PIT NYY L 0-10 GS-1 ,L 0.1 3 4 4 1 0 0 28 5 108.00
27 Art Ditmar 1960-10-05 WS 1 NYY PIT L 4-6 GS-1 ,L 0.1 3 3 3 1 0 0 32 5 81.00
28 Bob Turley 1958-10-02 WS 2 NYY MLN L 5-13 GS-1 ,L 0.1 3 4 4 1 1 1 29 5 108.00
29 Bob Buhl 1957-10-05 WS 3 MLN NYY L 3-12 GS-1 ,L 0.2 2 3 2 2 0 1 36 6 27.00
30 Karl Spooner 1955-10-03 WS 6 BRO NYY L 1-5 GS-1 ,L 0.1 3 5 5 2 1 1 24 6 135.00
31 Bob Miller 1950-10-07 WS 4 PHI NYY L 2-5 GS-1 ,L 0.1 2 2 1 0 0 0 41 4 27.00
32 Harry Taylor 1947-10-03 WS 4 BRO NYY W 3-2 GS-0 0.0 2 1 0 1 0 0 43 4 undef
33 Howie Pollet 1946-10-11 WS 5 STL BOS L 3-6 GS-1 0.1 3 1 1 0 0 0 41 4 27.00
34 Hank Borowy 1945-10-10 WS 7 CHC DET L 3-9 GS-0 ,L 0.0 3 3 3 0 0 0 32 3 inf
35 Schoolboy Rowe 1940-10-07 WS 6 DET CIN L 0-4 GS-1 ,L 0.1 4 2 2 0 0 0 35 5 54.00
36 Charlie Root 1935-10-03 WS 2 CHC DET L 3-8 GS-1 ,L 0.0 4 4 4 0 0 1 26 4 inf
37 Guy Bush 1932-10-02 WS 4 CHC NYY L 6-13 GS-1 0.1 2 1 1 1 0 0 42 5 27.00
38 Johnny Allen 1932-10-02 WS 4 NYY CHC W 13-6 GS-1 0.2 5 4 3 0 0 1 28 8 40.50
39 Vic Aldridge 1925-10-15 WS 7 PIT WSH W 9-7 GS-1 0.1 2 4 4 3 0 0 28 6 108.00
40 Curly Ogden 1924-10-10 WS 7 WSH NYG W 4-3 GS-1 0.1 0 0 0 1 1 0 51 2 0.00
41 Fred Toney 1921-10-11 WS 6 NYG NYY W 8-5 GS-1 0.2 3 3 3 1 0 0 33 6 40.50
42 Ray Caldwell 1920-10-07 WS 3 CLE BRO L 1-2 GS-1 ,L 0.1 2 2 1 1 0 0 40 5 27.00
43 Lefty Williams 1919-10-09 WS 8 CHW CIN L 5-10 GS-1 ,L 0.1 4 4 4 0 0 0 27 5 108.00
44 Reb Russell 1917-10-13 WS 5 CHW NYG W 8-5 GS-0 0.0 2 2 2 1 0 0 37 3 inf
45 Ed Summers 1909-10-11 WS 3 DET PIT L 6-8 GS-1 ,L 0.1 3 5 0 1 0 0 34 6 0.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/9/2013.
  
This video makes it very clear that Johnny Cueto's game from last year was injury-related, so that one can be tossed out. John Thomson's game in 2004 has no video, but the play-by-play from that inning is:
Inn Score Out RoB Pit(cnt) R/O @Bat Batter Pitcher wWPA wWE Play Description
Bottom of the 1st, Astros Batting, Tied 0-0, Braves' John Thomson facing 1-2-3
b1 0-0 0 --- 1,(0-0)  O HOU C. Biggio J. Thomson -2% 53% Groundout: SS-1B
b1 0-0 1 --- 1,(0-0)  HOU C. Beltran J. Thomson 4% 57% Double to CF (Fly Ball)
Paul Byrd replaces John Thomson pitching and batting 9th (change occurred mid-batter)
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/9/2013.

THAT appears to be injury-related as well, but after that...it looks like bad pitching in the wrong game. The number of batters faced goes up, the runs and earned runs go up and the game ERAs begin to enter triple-digit territory, or even worse, the dreaded infinite. To be fair, Hellickson did NOT join this august group, but if I expand this list just one more out so as to include all starters who lasted just one inning it only grows to 68--out of 2,766 opportunities.


The second is even rarer. I started tracking the game on the mlb.com app, which always amuses me with their screen shot for Tropicana Field:


I'm sure you see the mistake as quickly as I did--they mistakenly show fans in the seats. The official attendance for the game was 32,807--Wikipedia lists the capacity at 34,078, and 42,735...WITHOUT TARP-COVERED SEATS! Awesome.


Around the 5th inning I noticed the Rays had already used four pitchers and checked the same B-R Play Index tool to see the most pitchers used in a postseason game of 9 innings or less:
Rk Date Series Gm# Tm Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO HR WP Pit Str
1 2013-10-08 ALDS 4 TBR BOS L 1-3 9.0 6 3 3 8 10 0 2 163 87
2 2002-10-05 NLDS 3 SFG ATL L 2-10 9.0 10 10 10 7 8 1 0 173 104
3 1996-10-05 ALDS 4 TEX NYY L 4-6 9.0 12 6 6 3 7 2 1 154 95
4 1967-10-11 WS 6 STL BOS L 4-8 8.0 12 8 8 2 2 4 0
5 1961-10-09 WS 5 CIN NYY L 5-13 9.0 15 13 11 6 6 2 1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/9/2013.

I ruined the surprise with the table, but only four teams in postseason play had used as many as 8 pitchers in a game, and if extra-inning games are included, that numbers increases to 19 teams that used 8 or more pitchers, with two more using 9:
Rk Date Series Gm# Tm Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO HR WP Pit Str
1 2013-10-08 ALDS 4 TBR BOS L 1-3 9.0 6 3 3 8 10 0 2 163 87
2 2005-10-25 WS 3 CHW HOU W 7-5 14.0 8 5 3 12 14 1 0 245 140
3 1999-10-17 NLCS 5 NYM ATL W 4-3 15.0 13 3 3 10 19 0 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/9/2013. 

As soon as I saw that Chris Archer had entered the game I actively began to root for Maddon to use a 9th pitcher and he didn't disappoint by bringing in Wesley Wright. I'm not faulting Maddon, there's certainly no better time to used platoon pitching than in the last inning of a playoff series, but it's still pretty amazing.

These two facts very much complement each other, but it's interesting to note that only one of the quick-hook pitchers of the first table led to an entry in the second (the Reds game in the 1961 World Series). These numbers aren't earth-shattering, but it's intriguing to see where the specialization in pitching is leading. Last night's game was played in a zippy 3:49, the Reds-Yankees games in 3:05. The 1961 Series was televised, but there's no doubt modern games last longer due to television breaks, but shuttling in 9 pitchers won't speed things along.

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