How To Build A Baseball Team

This is the St. Louis Cardinal roster:

	Age	Yrs	Acquired	Contract Status	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Adam Wainwright	31	8	Traded	6 yrs/$59.4M (08-13),5 yrs/$97.5M (14-18)	$12M	$19.5M	$19.5M	$19.5M	$19.5M	$19.5M
Matt Holliday	33	10	Traded	7 yrs/$120M (10-16) & 17 team option	$17M	$17M	$17M	$17M	$1M [FA-*]	FA
Yadier Molina	30	10	Amateur Draft	10 yrs/$96.5M (08-17) & 18 team option	$14M	$15M	$15M	$14M	$14M	$2M [FA-*]
Allen Craig	28	4	Amateur Draft	5 yrs/$31M (13-17) & 18 team option	$1.75M	$2.75M	$5.5M	$9M	$11M	$1M [FA-*]
Jaime Garcia	26	5	Amateur Draft	4 yrs/$27M (12-15) & 16-17 team option	$5.75M	$7.75M	$9.25M	$500k [FA-*]	$0 [FA-*]	FA
Jake Westbrook	35	13	Traded	3 yrs/$26.25M (11-13) & 14 mutual option	$8.75M	$1M [FA-*]	FA
Carlos Beltran	36	16	Free Agency	2 yrs/$26M (12-13)	$13M	FA
Chris Carpenter	38	15	Free Agency	2 yrs/$21M (12-13)	$10.5M	FA
Rafael Furcal	35	13	Traded	2 yrs/$14M (12-13)	$7M	FA
Jason Motte	31	5	Amateur Draft	2 yrs/$12M (13-14)	$4.5M	$7.5M	FA
Randy Choate	37	13	Free Agency	3 yrs/$7.5M (13-15)	$1.5M	$3M	$3M	FA
Edward Mujica	29	8	Traded	1 yr/$3.2M (13)	$3.2M	FA
David Freese	30	5	Traded	1 yr/$3.15M (13)	$3.15M	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Jon Jay	28	4	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$524k (13)	$524k	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Lance Lynn	26	3	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$513k (13)	$513k	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Fernando Salas	28	4	Purchased	1 yr/$512k (13)	$512k	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Daniel Descalso	26	4	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$511k (13)	$511k	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Matt Carpenter	27	3	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$504k (13)	$504k	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Tony Cruz	26	3	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$503k (13)	$503k	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Shane Robinson	28	4	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$498k (13)	$498k	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3	FA
Joe Kelly	25	2	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$493k (13)	$493k	Pre-Arb-2	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3
Pete Kozma	25	3	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$490k (13)	$490k	Pre-Arb-2	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3
Trevor Rosenthal	23	2	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$490k (13)	$490k	Pre-Arb-2	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3
Ryan Jackson	25	2	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$490k (13)	$490k	Pre-Arb-2	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3
Matt Adams	24	2	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$490k (13)	$490k	Pre-Arb-2	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3
Shelby Miller	22	2	Amateur Draft	1 yr/$490k (13)	$490k	Pre-Arb-2	Pre-Arb-3	Arb-1	Arb-2	Arb-3
Rob Johnson	30	7	Free Agency		Arb		Arb	FA
Victor Marte	32	4	Traded				Arb	Arb	Arb	FA
Adron Chambers	26	3	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Sam Freeman	26	2	Amateur Draft--no sign					Arb	Arb	Arb
Michael Blazek	24	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Keith Butler	24	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Jermaine Curtis	25	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
John Gast	24	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Tyler Lyons	25	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Seth Maness	24	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Carlos Martinez	21	1st	Free Agency					Arb	Arb	Arb
Brock Peterson	29	1st	Free Agency					Arb	Arb	Arb
Kevin Siegrist	23	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Michael Wacha	21	1st	Amateur Draft					Arb	Arb	Arb
Ty Wigginton	Ty Wigginton				$2.5M	$2.5M
Ronny Cedeno	Ronny Cedeno released				$282.79k
					2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Signed	Players With Guaranteed Contracts (does not include players with options)				*26	7	6	4	3	1
Dollars Committed	Value of Guaranteed Contracts (no options are exercised and includes buyouts)				*$111.4M	$76M	$69.2M	$60M	$45.5M	$22.5M
Contract Options	Players with any type of option					1		1	2	2
Option Values	Maximum value of options if all are exercised					$9.5M		$11.5M	$29M	$28M
Arb Eligible	Number of arbitration eligible players (1st-2nd-3rd-4th, "Arb" players = 3rds)					3-1-0-0	4-3-3-0	6-4-16-0	0-6-17-0	0-0-18-0
Arb Costs	Rough estimated value of all arbitration cases (uses 3-year averages for 1st yr, 2nd,..)					$7.8M	$26.6M	$83.4M	$82.5M	$70.2M
Other Players	Additional Players Needed to Fill 25-man (no options exercised)					14	9	-5	-1	6
Other Costs	Estimate of Remaining Players Costs (based on 1-year avg of all pre-arb players)					$7M	$4.5M	-$2.5M	-$500k	$3M
Payroll (no options)	Est. Total Payroll w/o Options (Guaranteed + Arb + Other)					$90.8M	$100.3M	$140.9M	$127.5M	$95.7M
Payroll (options)	Est. Total Payroll w/ Options (Guaranteed + Options + Arb + Other)					$99.8M	$100.3M	$151.9M	$155.5M	$122.7M

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/18/2013.

Observe three very critical issues: 

1. How the players were acquired

2. How much money is on the books for 2014 and beyond

3. The amount of stupid money for players no longer on the team

There are two free agents of note, Carlos Beltran and Chris Carpenter, and both are short-term contracts up after this year. The money going forward is essentially for Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday. Wainwright and Molina will receive substantial Cy Young/MVP votes and Holliday is productive. Their stupid money is essentially nothing.

The strength of the Cardinals is in their use of the draft with picks like Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter, Jon Jay and Allen Craig. This isn't easy--while it's the preferred pattern EVERY team wishes to follow, it requires the ability to not just evaluate talent but develop it as well. If this were easy to accomplish more teams would do it, but for now about the only teams that have pulled off the trick of building a team through the draft are the Cardinals, Rays and Pirates and to a lesser extent Cincinnati. Teams that are currently trying are Houston, Kansas City and the Cubs, with the Royals the closest to making the leap to success.

The Cardinals were one of the best teams in baseball in the 1960s, had a rough 1970s, rebounded nicely in the 1980s and appeared in three World Series, had a lull in the early 1990s and have had one of the best records in baseball from around 1996 on, making the playoffs in 10 of the 17 seasons between 1996-2012 and winning the World Series in 2006 and 2011. They did this by drafting well and adding timely (and relatively cheap) free agents to augment needs. This has the dual advantage of being affordable and generating sustained success by jettisoning players like Albert Pujols and Kyle Lohse when they become too expensive and reloading with cheaper players under team control for some years to come. The typical boom-bust-rebuild cycle can potentially be circumvented and teams can stay competitive even when they might still be a year or two away from dominance.

But it isn't easy and doesn't happen by accident. This tweet from Joe Sheehan on Saturday night caught my eye:

Leave aside the notion that Bonilla is owed money through 2015--granted, it's only $500,000 a year, but still. The Astros 2013 payroll shows two things very clearly:

1. The reason why they're VERY BAD this year

2. They have a plan

The Astros have ZERO DOLLARS committed for 2014--not one freaking cent. They owe $5.5 million to Wandy Rodriguez and a number of their young talent are entering or in their arbitration years, so it's not like they'll be able to get away with a payroll of $20 million next year, but it's their decision to make. Their young talent isn't guaranteed to develop into a successful team, but players like Jose Altuve and Jason Castro give them a chance, but they'll need pitching. They didn't draft their talent as much as trade for it, but still left themselves in control and for not a large amount of money. If this talent develops and key pieces can be added, they have a chance, but no matter what, they haven't hamstrung themselves with long, expensive and bad contracts.

Contrast them with their rivals for the worst team in baseball, the Marlins. To their credit, they aren't burdened with bad contracts--that was in 2012, but they dumped Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and others and in 2014 will only be left with $4 million for Heath Bell. Still, a look at their 2013 roster shows a confused team, full of old and bad players accomplishing nothing. Even Giancarlo Stanton isn't what he was in the past but he's young enough to bounce back. The Marlins are an organization in between plans--they were going to free agent their way to success but instead the perfect storm of a new stadium, Ozzie Guillen and no success blew up that plan in the space of a year. Their farm system doesn't appear to be well-stocked, leaving them in a terrible place of trying to figure out their next move. The Astros might be years away from success--the Marlins appear to be YEARS away, which will turn what is already a tough stadium to fill into a ghost town.

If the Golden Age of free agency ever existed, it's on its way out--even the Yankees only have around $90 million in commitments for 2014, and that doesn't include Vernon Wells (being paid by the Angels) and Alfonso Soriano (being paid by the Cubs). No, the way NOT to build a team has been clearly shown by the Angels, who purchased a one-way ticket to Screwed City with their signings of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, among others, along with unfortunate trades that let players like Jean Segura get away. They could be competitive in 2014--none of their aging veterans has truly reached the point of no return, but much beyond that, they're going to have a period of big money for non-productive players that will prevent them from being competitive. It's a 2000 way to build a team--spend now to win and live with the regret. Teams like the Cardinals are paving a new way.

It remains to be seen if good talent evaluation, drafting and development by itself can succeed or whether teams will need to be in the wilderness for a length of time to amass top picks AND draft well--the Cardinals are in the midst of proving that good picks can be found throughout the draft. Someday (probably over the winter) I'll do a comparison of the success rates of football, basketball and baseball drafts to see if stars are concentrated not just in the first round, but in the first HALF of the first round like they seem to be in football and basketball. For many reasons I don't think that will be the case, but I'll let the data speak for itself when I accumulate it. The Cardinals way appears to be THE way, as most successful teams have a solid core of homegrown (and relatively inexpensive) talent as their nucleus. It's a new day in baseball, one in which targeted spending is valued much more than profligate, and the sooner teams reach this understanding and build both their teams and front offices around the concept of internal development vs. external acquisition, the sooner teams will be on the path to sustained success.