Early Cy Young Predictions

Recently I posted my views on who I thought would win the MVP awards at the end of the season with the promise that I would do the same for the Cy Young. Since that particular post was one of the most-read that I've written that didn't receive a boost from Chicago's 670 The Score's Boers and Bernstein Show, I thought I'd follow up sooner rather than later. These are much tougher to make.

In 1984 I was a young 21-year-old Kmart manager transferred to Evanston, IL. As I made that move, another person was transitioning to Chicago, Rick Sutcliffe, who had a 4-5 record, 5.15 ERA and an ungodly 1.664 WHIP (an unknown stat at the time). I remember the trade being favorably received, but the price did seem steep, Joe Carter and Mel Hall. The Cubs were in first place in the NL East, uncharted waters for a team that had famously collapsed in 1969 and hadn't seen the postseason since 1945. Sutcliffe was acquired to add to what was already a solid rotation of Steve Trout, Dennis Eckersley and Scott Sanderson, and did he ever perform, going 16-1 and pulling the Cubs along with him to the NL East championship--interesting times to be in Chicago. The Cy Young voting that year wasn't even close--he received every first place vote and won it over some rookie named Dwight Gooden, but at around this point in the season, he was just another pitcher. That's what makes predictions like this dicey, but fun to make nonetheless.

I will reference only starting pitchers, with some notes on relievers at the end. Both tables I'll show will be sorted by WAR, beginning with the American League:

Both Clay Buchholz and Max Scherzer are undefeated, and yet Buchholz has a WAR value almost 60% higher than Scherzer's, due to the difference in ERA--Scherzer's is quite  good, Buchholz's is outstanding. Let's do some early pruning--there's no way (absent drastic changes in team fortune or stunning second halves) that Chris Sale, Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana or James Shields will win. I'll say pretty much the same thing about Hisashi Iwakuma, but I won't write off Felix Hernandez just yet since he did win in 2010 with a 13-12 record, implying that at least SOME Cy Young voters can see past a stat that doesn't even come close to telling the whole story in modern baseball. But we'll table Hernandez for the moment.

What does it say about the Royals that having two of the best starters in the AL has them at 34-36 and 5 games back of the Tigers and 6 out of the wild card? It's a testament to anemic hitting--7th in the AL in batting average but 12th in OPS and dead last in home runs--no wonder Santana has a WHIP below 1 and a .500 record. But what about the Mariners, with the second and third-best starters in the AL and a miserable 32-41 record? At least they have the Astros for cushion in the AL West, but they're just as woeful at the plate, last in average and second-to-last in OBP. Pitching gets you to the postseason, but a little bit of hitting never hurts either.

So who's left? If Hernandez can maintain that kind of record and end up something like 18-8, he could have a shot, but it will be Buchholz or Scherzer's to lose. In the end, I'll go with Buchholz for no other reason than he has a body of work to build on and Scherzer is more of an unknown to me. 
AL Cy Young--Clay Buchholz

Here's the National League table:

There are far fewer players I can reject out of hand in this group--only Jorge De La Rosa and Travis Wood are tossed out immediately in my mind. Wood will be a core part of the Cubs rotation if the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer plan comes to fruition, and De La Rosa is just waiting for the curse of the Rockies pitcher to rise up and bite him. Every other pitcher on this list is on a contender (or in Cliff Lee's case, WILL be).

Cliff Lee put up that record for a mediocre Phillies team and is owed over $50 million through 2016, so who would be interested--pretty much has Yankees or Rangers written all over it. I have a hard time seeing him staying in the National League, so I'll rule him out of the NL Cy Young race, with the caveat that a Rick Sutcliffe-like record for his future AL team could propel him into that race. Shelby Miller is eligible for the Rookie of the Year, Matt Harvey is not (he should be sure to thank the Mets for pitching him 9 innings over the threshold last year), and neither is going to win the Cy Young. Patrick Corbin, Jeff Locke and Mike Leake all represent young players on teams that will figure heavily in the playoff  picture, and if Corbin can stay as hot as he has been and the Diamondbacks can stay in the chase (get it, CHASE, you know, they play at Chase Field...forget it), he could have a shot.

Clayton Kershaw won the Cy Young in 2011 and was the runner-up last year, leading the majors in ERA in both years and doing the same in the NL this year. The Dodgers (and to varying extents, ALL West Coast teams) play in pitcher-friendly environments, but unless that win-loss record gets better, he'll get votes but no trophy. That leaves Adam Wainwright--solid record, excellent ERA for a team that is arguably the best in the majors. The Cardinals lineup from top to bottom is the definition of solid, and unless he breaks down or something extremely unfortunate happens to the Cardinals, he'll be a key member of an outstanding team.
NL Cy Young--Adam Wainwright

Some notes on relievers--in the AL, nobody really jumps out at me for Cy Young consideration. Relievers need to have seasons like Jose Valverde had in 2011, and even saving 49 of 49 games got him all the way to 5th in the Cy Young voting. Eric Gagne was the last reliever to win the Cy Young in 2003, and even that looks like a fluke now--the days of Willie Hernandez and Rollie Fingers winning have come and gone. Having written that, I'll never miss an opportunity to comment on Mariano Rivera--25 saves and 1 blown save, not too shabby for a 43-year-old pitcher who essentially missed 2012. When he retires after this year, he'll be one of the few that people will seriously state could have hung on a little more, but after his career, what left does he have to accomplish? Absolutely nothing.

I hope the Pirates feel lucky with Jason Grilli, because he sure has never done what he's doing before. He's been everything they need, 25-for-26 in save opportunities, but I wonder if they'll be shopping around for a closer at the trade deadline (Carlos Marmol will be available--REALLY available), but they'll probably settle for shoring up their middle relief and perhaps adding another starter. Edward Mujica has the most saves without having a blown opportunity with 21, but no relievers will receive serious consideration for the Cy Young. The day is coming when a simple realization will be made--when teams enter the 9th inning with a lead, they win at a .945 winning percentage. This includes blowouts as well as nail-biters, but the knowledge is entering baseball thought that the save might be as overblown as the win. That's  how pitchers like Grilli end up being thrust in the role and succeeding.

Someday I might write up the ultimate "What If" awards and see how things might have turned out if the season-ending awards were given out after 70 or so games. For example, in 2011 I'm pretty sure I would have given the AL MVP to Adrian Gonzalez without a second thought, and I'm pretty sure I felt the same way about Matt Kemp last year at this time--he eventually fell apart, and those things just can't be predicted. The main reason I want to do this is to see if my memories of that summer of 1984 are anomalous or if it happens more often than I realize, that the Cy Young winner usually wins it with a blistering end of the season.

Yasiel Puig in Historical Context

One comment before I turn to Yasiel Puig: in the history of interleague play (which began in 1997), the LA Dodgers have NEVER played a game in Yankee Stadium, and even when scheduled had to wait a day due to weather. One of the most iconic rivalries in baseball, World Series opponents eleven times and the Dodgers haven't been in Yankee Stadium since October 28th, 1981. Believe it or not, there are still SIX interleague matchups that haven't been played in a given park:

1. The Cubs haven't played at Oakland

2. The Braves haven't played at Kansas City

3. The Cardinals haven't played at the LA Angels

4. The Rays haven't played at the LA Dodgers

5. The Padres haven't played at Toronto

6. The Rangers haven't played at St. Louis (in the regular season--they were 1-3 at St. Louis in the 2011 World Series)

How on Earth has America, no, THE WORLD managed to exist without these compelling matchups?

15 games into his big league career, Yasiel Puig is beginning to set some historical marks. I set some parameters in order to sift through the data:
1. Using the Game Finder tool in Baseball-Reference's Play Index, I filtered for players with at least one plate appearance in 14 of his first 15 games. This left a sample of 2,648 players (some of whom were pitchers--forgot to filter them out) since 1916.
2. I arbitrarily chose my cutoff as 40 plate appearances in these 14-15 games--I was looking for players that were used as regulars and not so much as pinch hitters.
With these criteria in mind,  here are the top 10 15-game starts since 1916:

This table is sorted by OPS, and there's  quite a range sitting in there. Fred Lynn accomplished this as a late-season call-up that was a preview of his outstanding 1975 season. Willie McCovey is a Hall of Famer, Matt Kemp was All-World last year and banged up this year. Mark Reynolds, along with Adam Dunn are the last of a dying breed, the three-outcome hitter, and Taylor Teagarden is...well, Taylor Teagarden. The two people with the most home runs in this span are Kemp and a person just off this list, Dino Restelli in 1949. It goes to show, there are no guarantees.

But Puig is pretty special. He's already made some outstanding plays in the field, throwing out runners testing an arm they weren't familiar with, laying down bunts and certainly showing power. It's too early to know if this will be sustained or if pitchers will get some video on him and find the holes in his swing. Good luck with that--these charts from Texas Leaguers illustrate his plate discipline. This first one shows what pitches he swings at:

This will be the first difference he'll see if it isn't happening already--he's going to start seeing a LOT more pitches outside of the strike zone to see if he'll bite. I didn't bother to count, but that looks like around 20-25 pitches outside of the strike zone. Through Wednesday's games, he's walked once and struck out 11 times, including one in each of the last five games, but this chart doesn't  suggest that he's a free swinger that goes up to the plate hacking. It appears he knows what he's looking for and waiting to get it and does not seem to swing at much outside the zone. 

This next chart shows the pitches he takes:

All in all, a pretty selective eye, strikeouts notwithstanding. It's pretty clear where the pitches are going to start going, to the right third of the strike zone, obvious for a right-handed hitter. He certainly likes to swing when he's up there--he has swinging strikes in 19% of pitches, which would put him in the top 25% if he had enough plate appearances. As long as he's hitting .474 that won't be a problem. Of course, he won't always hit .474, and that will be what determines his success or failure.

This last chart shows his spray chart:

It's too early to make grand pronouncements, but he's hitting all over the field--three of his five home runs are to the opposite field and he sprays the ball around, giving the impression he works with what he's given and doesn't attempt to pull balls that would result in weak grounders. 

So, how about the WORST 15-game starts?:

There's a whole lot of "eh" there, and I'll guarantee you've barely heard of many of these players, for good reason. Aaron Hicks is still underwhelming as the Twins center fielder and has to be under pressure--he was put on the 15-day DL recently. Phil Nevin had a decent (depending on how far one is willing to stretch the definition of "decent") career, and as a ballplayer, Jackie Moore was...well, not a very good manager. I didn't want to do it, but I ran some numbers on Vic Harris, a middle infielder for some really bad 70s teams--the Rangers, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants and Brewers. He managed to stick around to accumulate over 1800 plate appearances and hit .217, and that was his ASSET as a player--he was a below-average fielder. He had a career WAR of -6.2, of which about 80% was due to poor fielding. And one last word on a player who deserves few--his teams' record in games in which he started was 153-232. Only in the 1970s, my friends.

Playing in a major market will provide no hiding place for Puig as the season progresses, but he will have the advantage that the Dodgers are going nowhere. Where will he end up--I'm already on record stating I wouldn't be surprised if he's the NL Rookie of the Year, and I'm sticking with that. I am nowhere near ready to predict a career trajectory (neither is Baseball-Reference), but he's a corner outfielder with power, and those things don't just go away. I DO predict that Andre Ethier will be wearing a new uniform sooner rather than later, and I wouldn't be surprised if Puig makes the All-Star team--if forced to take a stand, I'll still say no in deference to Clayton Kershaw, but I wouldn't be shocked. He's having one of the best career starts in baseball history, better than EVERY HALL OF FAMER--it's no guarantee, but it sure is amazing.

Early MVP Predictions

Baseball is days away from taking center stage in the sports world as both the NBA and NHL playoffs will end and NFL training camps don't open for another month or so. Given that, it's not too early to make predictions for the end-of-season awards. When discussing the MVP, I will NOT discuss pitchers, since they'll get their own coverage whenever I get around to writing about the Cy Young Award, but I don't categorically rule them out as candidates. I think it was Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) who wrote last year or the year before (I think it was in conjunction with Justin Verlander winning the 2011 AL MVP, but I could be wrong on all of this) that while batters have 650-700 plate appearances in a season, a pitcher will face 1,000 batters. I'd never thought about it that way before, and as usual, he was absolutely right.

All numbers are taken from Baseball-Reference and sorted by WAR. This table outlines the top 10 candidates in the American League:

Let's just clear the chaff and get it out of the way--forget about Howie Kendrick, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer for now. Every comment will be with the huge caveat that dramatic changes can occur in the second half of the season--the Twins could go on a serious winning streak and challenge the Tigers for the AL Central and put Mauer in the thick of the discussion (won't happen), Donaldson and the A's will continue to play well (a very real possibility) or the Angels could wake up from their season-long funk (uh, no). In a 162-game season, anything can happen, but I'm working from probability, not what-ifs.

Manny Machado isn't eligible for Rookie of the Year since he had 202 plate appearances in 2012 (the threshold is 130). His power numbers are unremarkable (particularly for a third baseman), but if he's not the best-fielding third baseman in the league, he's knocking on the door. Don't get hung up over the fact that the last two columns (oWAR=offensive WAR and dWAR=defensive WAR) don't add up to the WAR number, since there are a couple of other components that aren't included that make up the complete WAR number, but in Machado's case, his fielding is a full 40% of his value. It's a rare day when defense is recognized in MVP voting, and while I suspect he'll get his share of votes, I don't think he'll win.

When Dustin Pedroia won the MVP in 2008, his defense WAS a facet in that selection, but he's a solid all-around player. The AL is rich in second basemen now with Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Kendrick and up-and-comers like Jason Kipnis and Jose Altuve. Nothing suggests the Red Sox are going to fade going down the stretch, but Pedroia would have to step up his batting in order to attract serious consideration.

I see it as a race between two first basemen, one of whom actually PLAYS first base: Chris Davis and Miguel Cabrera. No other team in the AL Central seems interested in contending, and Cabrera is at the point in his career that serious all-time comparisons can start being made. For example, consider some of his career thresholds:
1. Cabrera is in his 11th season--in baseball history, he's hit the 7th-most home runs through season 11 and will probably move up to #5 by season's end. The four ahead of him (in ascending order): Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews and Albert Pujols.
2. He's 13th in hits after season 11 and will probably make it to 10th or 11th. Ahead of him (this deserves a chart:

Rk	Player	HR	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H ▾	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Ichiro Suzuki	95	8060	2001	2011	27-37	1749	7456	1127	2428	280	74	605	496	752	423	95	.326	.370	.421	.791
2	Paul Waner	97	7398	1926	1936	23-33	1638	6486	1228	2254	451	165	957	741	231	94		.348	.417	.513	.930
3	Al Simmons	240	6733	1924	1934	22-32	1524	6182	1147	2188	408	115	1380	431	510	73	51	.354	.398	.574	.971
4	Pete Rose	114	7707	1963	1973	22-32	1697	6907	1107	2152	349	84	650	676	669	95	86	.312	.375	.436	.811
5	Kirby Puckett	184	7229	1984	1994	24-34	1646	6706	988	2135	375	57	986	394	876	131	74	.318	.358	.474	.832
6	Wade Boggs	85	7323	1982	1992	24-34	1625	6213	1067	2098	422	47	687	1004	470	16	27	.338	.428	.462	.890
7	Hank Aaron	366	7216	1954	1964	20-30	1656	6510	1180	2085	351	79	1216	603	655	125	41	.320	.376	.567	.943
8	Albert Pujols	445	7433	2001	2011	21-31	1705	6312	1291	2073	455	15	1329	975	704	84	35	.328	.420	.617	1.037
9	Richie Ashburn	21	7563	1948	1958	21-31	1641	6558	1028	2067	271	95	479	867	413	190	64	.315	.397	.395	.792
10	Stan Musial	227	6754	1941	1952	20-31	1524	5844	1149	2023	415	133	1014	846	304	60	12	.346	.431	.579	1.010
11	Earl Averill	236	7078	1929	1939	27-37	1597	6218	1212	1984	397	127	1142	768	500	70	58	.319	.397	.538	.934
12	Derek Jeter	169	6996	1995	2005	21-31	1525	6167	1159	1936	308	47	763	636	1089	215	57	.314	.386	.461	.847
13	Miguel Cabrera	340	6794	2003	2013	20-30	1581	5936	1016	1900	402	14	1194	751	1155	35	18	.320	.397	.564	.962

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/19/2013.

Just as Michael Jordan could have won the MVP just about every year he played (same with LeBron James today), Cabrera is so good that he could win it every year, but voters just don't vote that way. That's why TODAY, I'd put my money on Chris Davis. He's followed up his strong 2012 by showing no signs of slowing down, hitting the third-most home runs since the beginning of 2012 (behind Cabrera and...Edwin Encarnacion?!?!). If the Orioles can stay in the AL East race (they'd be a wild card team if the playoffs started today), a big reason will be because of Davis. 
AL MVP--Chris Davis

Things are not so clear-cut in the National League. Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura have no shot since they play for the Brewers, and in Gomez's case a fair amount of his value is from his defense. I can't categorically state that Troy Tulowitzki doesn't have a chance, but he's on the DL and expected to miss 4-6 weeks. If the Rockies stay relevant in the NL West I won't rule him out, but I'm thinking no. Forget about David Wright, and Gerardo Parra is having a strong season, but also gets quite a boost from his defense.

This is the point where things get interesting. Carlos Gonzalez leads the NL in home runs and slugging and the majors in runs scored. Rockies have never had much luck in the MVP voting (other than Larry Walker in 1997), and while Gonzlez did finish 3rd in 2010 , I suspect the bias against Coors Field and a team that doesn't really enter into the voter's mind will not help him. Same for Paul Goldschmidt--the Diamondbacks are as overlooked as the Rockies, but the one thing they both have going for them is that the NL West will be a tight race (absent injuries or other things that can't be predicted, of course). Tight races get coverage, even if it's next-day due to the lateness of the games, but for anyone who REALLY wants to know what's going on, the information is out there. If I could look at everything blindly (i.e., no idea who the player is or what team he plays for), I'm not sure that I wouldn't choose Goldschmidt, but other than the Los Angeles teams (and San Francisco if they're playing well), the teams west of the Rockies (this works both metaphorically AND literally--think about it) simply don't receive the amount of coverage other teams do.

I see it as a three-man race between Yadier Molina, Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen, and as I begin writing this section, I THINK I know whom I favor, but I might change my mind. I'll go ahead and rule out Votto because his power numbers are pedestrian--he leads the majors in walks but MVP voters don't care about that. He could have a strong second half  but as thing sit today, no. Yadier Molina is a primary cog on a team that isn't filled with superstars but with stunningly competent players and a smattering of select free agents thrown in for good measure (refer to this post where I discuss the Cardinals and their roster). Molina's offense is nothing special, and even from a defensive standpoint he's not having a lights-out year--he's thrown out 41% of base stealers (11 of 27) as teams realize running on him isn't a solid strategy. Back in the day MVP voters absolutely loved to vote based on "intangibles" like "leadership," "clutch performance" or "The Will To Win," but that was before people realized that intangibles really can be quantified. Other than Pedroia in 2008, the MVP doesn't go to people who don't have outstanding counting stats, which could be Molina's bane.

Which leaves Andrew McCuthen, and I'm starting to vacillate again. His pro-rated stats project to around a 20 HR-80 RBI season, so-so for a #3 hitter. He has the lowest OPS of anyone on this list, and I consider his stolen bases so important that I didn't list them. However, think about what happens if the Pirates maintain their strong start (the best since 1992) and make the playoffs (they're five games up in the wild card as of now)--THAT'S a story with a chance of transcending sports and becoming a news story. With extensive coverage and McCutchen quite likely the best player on the team, that's going to get some attention--and some votes.
NL MVP--Andrew McCutchen

I don't see the MVP going to a pitcher in either league this year unless Max Scherzer goes undefeated with something like a 18-0 record. Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee are playing for teams going nowhere and Seattle has managed to ride outstanding pitching from Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma absolutely nowhere. It's early with a lot of baseball left to play and many factors totally beyond the control of the players listed, but I wrote it and I'll own it. I'll probably revisit all the awards as we near September, but anyone can make predictions when the season is 80% complete--it's daredevils like me that go out on a limb and boldly go where no blogger has gone before and do it in June.